Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for May 11, 2011

/IRBIS, May 11, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for May 11, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The news background before KASE trade opening seems to be moderately negative. In particular, it's negative for mining sectors shares, because the ambiguous dynamics of industrial metals prices and decrease of oil quotations is noted on the market, following the concern about Chinese economy retardation due to high inflation rate. Today the shares of Kazakhmys, ENRC, and EP KMG will be under pressure. - Trading in Asia today is in a multidirectional manner. Japanese market is growing on the restoration of the price of oil and metals, as well as the weakening of national currency. The Chinese market is declining at a moderate pace after inflation in China for the fourth consecutive time exceeded the target of the Central Bank of the country. In April, inflation was 5.3%, which is lower than the previous month (5.4%), but above market expectations at 0.1 percentage point. The Government of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao is going to achieve the annual inflation rate of 4%. The data reinforced the speculation about the likelihood of further monetary tightening in China against the background of stable inflation in the country. Shares of Chinese property developers are falling, putting pressure on the market in response to reports that China Construction Bank Corp. increased the level of initial payment on the mortgage loans. Today the Shanghai Composite index goes down 0.3%, Nikkei adds 0.5%. - In Asian trading today, the euro/dollar declines by 0.15% and is traded at 1.4388. The negative data for China, where the April inflation rate was 5.3% higher than economists' expectations, is putting pressure on risky assets, including the euro. The talk about restructuring in Greece yesterday's statements by officials of Germany that such a scenario is not discussed and basically looks the worst, weren't comforting. In their view, the consequences can be disastrous both socially and economically. In this case, a more sensible would be to provide additional external aid for Greece. However, do many economists will not agree with it, being in favor of an immediate decision to restructure the debts of Greece as well as delay may increase the debt burden of country that probably would entail withdrawal from the euro zone. Today the data on the CPI in Germany, as well as statistics on budget and U.S. trade balance will affect the trade. - Commodity markets today show a weak trend. Futures price of WTI oil on electronic trading in New York today are down by 0.3% in response to China's inflation data. Brent oil lost 0.5% of the value and is located just above $117 a barrel. Copper traded in Shanghai shows moderate growth, adding only 0.3%. Gold and silver continue to increase in response to investors' concerns about inflation in China and the debt problems of the eurozone, which is usually a breeding ground for the growth of precious metals. At the auctions in Asia the price of gold rose by 0.5%. At the moment prices exceed the mark of $ 1,500 per ounce. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.5 6.2 Sell -4.6 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 483.1 452.0 Sell -6.4 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 210.0 226.0 Sell +7.6 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.6 13.6 Buy +41.8 HALYK BANK KASE 345.0 474.0 Buy +37.4 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 237.0 Buy +40.7 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n/a 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 495.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 21.7 22.7 Hold +5 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 19,000.0 20,062.0 Hold +6 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.99 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,301.0 1,427.0 Hold +10 ENRC LSE 881.5 1,216.0 Buy +38 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 2.0 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 4.1 3.3 Sell -19 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,000.0 33,825.0 Buy +78 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 43.3 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-05-11]