Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for May 6, 2011

/IRBIS, May 6, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for May 6, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The news background was very negative at the opening of the trading of KASE. Yesterday fall for oil and metal prices will lead to active fixation of the profit on stocks of Kazakhstani producing companies. - The Asian auctions sites are influenced by negative news from the U.S., where major indexes yesterday went down nearly 1% in response to a sudden increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits by 43 thousand to 474 thousand and falling consumer confidence of Americans last week, as shown by Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index. Together with the recent news of rate hikes in India and other Asian countries, as well as the fall in business activity in the U.S. services sector, statistics casts doubt on the sustainability of economic growth and reduced demand for riskier assets. Shanghai Composite index and the Hang-Seng today lost 0.2% and 0.6% respectively, Nikkei shows a significant rate of decline, falling by 1.7%. - Today, the euro / dollar traded at 1.4544, as previous day's close. Unexpected statement of ECB President Trichet, being not in favor of increasing interest rates next month scared investors, who reduced their positions on the euro, which fell almost 2%. A further decision on the change in rates will be made only after June. Probably, the ECB is not in a hurry in changing its policy in favor of tightening, deciding to wait for the Fed's actions to complete the repurchase program of QE2 bonds at the end of June. Moreover, a significant rise in the euro earlier this year (9% against the dollar) may stop the controller from raising the rates. On the one hand the strong euro puts considerable pressure on the competitiveness of European exporters on the other - to strengthen the single currency should, with a slight lag contribute to slowing of the rate of inflation. In this regard, the need to balance the two factors are likely to preclude the possibility of growth in the euro above $ 1.50, what would happen if the hawkish statements by the ECB. The situation on the U.S. labor market shows some deterioration. Investors' attention today will be glued to data on unemployment and employment change in the economy except agriculture. Do not exclude the possibility of recovery of the euro lost ground to the level of 1.46 or higher. - The situation on goods markets has stabilized after the yesterday fall of oil and metal quotation. Brent futures increase 1% and are estimately $112 per barrel; investors buy oil affected by speculations on the exceeded yesterday fall. Copper price is higher today, on the e-trade in New-York 0.45-0.5% increase is noted. Gold also rises 1%. - The dynamics of trade in Europe and the United States today will be affected by macroeconomic data. In the U.S. today U.S. statistics on unemployment and employment growth in the private and non-farm sectors will be published.. Employment growth in the private sector, projected to reach 200 thousand jobs in non-farm is 185 thousand, the unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous month and was 8.8%. The negative statistics on the labor market amid fears about the sustainability of world economic growth may support the "bearish" sentiment and demand for the dollar. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.7 6.2 Sell -6.8 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 509.5 452.0 Sell -11.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 210.0 226.0 Sell +7.6 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.5 13.6 Buy +43.5 HALYK BANK KASE 355.0 474.0 Buy +33.5 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 237.0 Buy +40.7 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy - BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 516.6 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 22.2 22.7 Hold +2 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 19,150.0 20,062.0 Hold +5 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.96 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,260.0 1,427.0 Hold +13 ENRC LSE 870.0 1,216.0 Buy +40 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 2.1 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 4.2 3.3 Sell -22 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,400.0 33,825.0 Buy +74 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 43.3 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-05-06]