The review of key events from "Asyl-Invest" JCS analysts for May 4, 2011

/IRBIS, May 5, 2011/ - "ASYL-INVEST" JCS (Almaty) has provided IRBIS with the review of main events and its investment ideas and forecast for May 04, 2011 Trading on the Kazakhstani stock market on Wednesday ended with the fall in the negative external background. KASE index on the basis of trades fell by 0.8% to 1,692.1 points. Decrease of the index was due to falling stock prices of NSBK (-2.2%) and ENRC (-1.4%). Activity of market participants was quite low. The trading volume of KASE index on Wednesday declined to 6.1 times the previous day and reached 5.4 million KZT. Trading of shares and depositary receipts of Kazakhstani issuers on the London Stock Exchange on Wednesday was negative. Fall in commodity prices had a negative impact on the trades of commodity companies. Shares of Kazakhmys fell by 2%, shares of ENRC - 2.6%, GDR KMG - 1.1%. NSBK GDR fell by 2.3%, GDR NSBK increased by 1.8%. The external background seems to be neutral for the Kazakhstani stock market. "ASYL-INVEST" analysts expect the KASE index partial recovery after the 3-day fall. Besides, "Asyl-Invest" JCS analysts expect the following events on the worldwide markets: - Major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply in the first half of the Wednesday session due to disappointing economic data, the negative external background, falling commodity prices. Indexes lost more than 1%, but in future trading managed to recover some lost losses. The sharp intraday drop of indices coincided with the release of data on the composite index for the ISM non- manufacturing areas in April. The index in April fell from 57.3 points to 52.8 points and thus went closer to the boundary of 50 points. Economists had forecast growth of up to 57.5 points. Decrease of the index occurred, thus, the second consecutive month. In general, the details of the report were disappointing - the decline occurred in four sub-indices. The greatest decrease occurred in the subindex of new orders - from 64.1 points to 52.7 points. In our view, the decline in the services sector was temporary and was due to increased cost of oil and earthquake in Japan. - Before the opening of trading in the U.S. published data by ADP on the number of employers in April, which had a limited impact on the course of trading. These were generally quite good. The number of people employed in non-agricultural private sector in the country in April, taking into account seasonal adjustments, increased by 179 thousand, after rising by 207 thousand in March. Economists had forecast an increase of 198 thousand, as the ADP report shows that the situation in the labor market in April has continued to improve, but at a moderate pace. Employment in the service sector in April rose by 138 thousand (an increase of 16 months in a row), employment in goods production - by 41 thousand (6 months). Published data from ADP now assume similar trends in the employment report to be published this Friday. The worst dynamics of stock trading sector has demonstrated the basic "material" (-1.8%) and sector of the oil and gas (-1.7%). June futures for WTI crude oil fell by 1.63% to $ 109.24 a barrel, the U.S. dollar index has not changed. Corporate reporting, released in USA, didn't affect the markets. - Today the data on primary applies for unemployment benefit for the week, ended on April 30, data on the productivity in non- agricultural sector, data on spends for labor force will be published in USA. This statistics is very important and may affect the share trading. Corporate reports will not play any role today. The markets will estimate the labor market condition and wait the report on employment, coming tomorrow. - Bidding for major stock markets of Western Europe on Wednesday ended in the fall. The main European indices drop occurred with the fall of the U.S. indices. The dynamics of the worst in the auction was led by commodity companies. June futures for Brent crude fell by 1.03% to $ 121.19 a barrel. Worse than expectations of economists came out data on the PMI index in the euro zone service sector in April, data for euro-zone retail sales for March. - Today, the external background for West European stock exchanges continues to be negative. Indexes can continue to bear the losses in the absence of strong supporting factors. Today decision of the ECB and the Bank of England's main interest rate is expected. Economists do not predict changes in the value stakes. In Germany, there are data on industrial orders for March. - Major Asian stock indexes are now showing a decline. Negative impact on the course of trading shares has lower prices on commodity markets. Investors are concerned about the possible tightening of monetary policy in China in the near future. Oil prices are now traded in different directions. June futures for WTI crude oil decreased by 0.3%, the June futures for Brent crude oil showed the lateral dynamics. Gold prices are currently increasing at 0.4%. U.S. dollar is now losing 0.2%. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-05-05]