Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for May 5, 2011

/IRBIS, May 5, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for May 5, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The news background before trade opening on KASE was negative. Yesterday fall of oil and metal prices, which continued the two-day decrease, could make domestic players fixate the profits on shares of Kazakhstani producing companies more actively. The quotations of shares of domestic producing companies fell 1-2.6% on yesterday European trade. Thus, the domestic market didn't react the exterior dynamics with most tools. - In Asian floors the trades are under the influence of mixed feelings. Hang Seng and Shanghai are down 0.16% and 0.17% respectively. Negative U.S. data on employment and activity in non-production sector alarmed Asian investors, who fear a slowdown in U.S. economy. Expectations of tighter monetary policy and weak statements of technology companies such as Acer and LG, have placed greater pressure on the indices. Nikkei meanwhile adds more than 1.5%, supported by investors' optimism about Japan's economic recovery after natural disasters. - Today on the eve of the meeting of the ECB, the euro/dollar adds 0.23% and is traded at 1.486. The central bank will keep interest rates at 1.25. However, it is believed by investors, that the regulator once again will urgently raise the issue of relatively high inflation in the euro area and give a signal about future rate hikes in coming months. The difference in the policy of the ECB and the Fed continues to support the euro, which is still able to overcome the level of 1.49. In Germany, the slowdown in industrial orders up 0.4% is expected. The dollar may not be pleased by the data on initial applications for unemployment benefits, which are, as experts believe, more than 400 thousand. - The raw material market continues to hold negative sentiment, even in spite of the U.S. dollar losing its position. Futures price of oil of WTI and Brent fell 0.33% and 0.12% to $ 108.8 and $ 121 per barrel, respectively. Slowing of the U.S. economy, coupled with a reduction in fuel consumption in the country for the fourth day exerts pressure on quotes of "black gold". The price of copper fell to seven-week lows, approaching $9000 per ton. A further rise in interest rates in the euro area, China and other regions affect reduction in demand from investors for Commodities. The need to hedge inflationary risks increases investors' demand for gold, which value is growing today at 0.32%, to $1,520.2 per ounce. - The trade dynamics in Europe and USA will be affected by macroeconomic data today. The statistics on unemployment rate, which was disappointing yesterday, will be published today in USA. The decrease of applies for unemployment benefits from 429,000 to 410,000 is expected. The indicator is higher than psychological 400,000 point, which makes the possibility of labor market's fast recovery doubtful. S&P 500 index futures today go up 0.3%. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.8 6.2 Sell -8.1 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 509.5 452.0 Sell -11.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 210.0 226.0 Sell +7.6 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.5 13.6 Buy +43.5 HALYK BANK KASE 351.0 474.0 Buy +35.0 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE - 237.0 Buy - HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy - BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 516.6 - Neutral n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Oil-and-Gas: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 22.3 22.7 Hold +2 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 19,250.0 20,062.0 Hold +4 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.96 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,305.0 1,427.0 Hold +9 ENRC LSE 877.5 1,216.0 Buy +39 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 2.1 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 4.4 3.3 Sell -25 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,600.0 33,825.0 Buy +73 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 43.3 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-05-05]