Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for May 4, 2011

/IRBIS, May 4, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for May 4, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The news background before trade opening on KASE was negative. The quotations of domestic producing companies' shares went down 0.7-3.6% yesterday at the European trade. In general, the external markets dynamics isn't optimistic, judging on the beginning of the week. - Rollback of American indices from the maximum marks of the past two years, even against the backdrop of positive statistics on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing and industrial orders, negatively affects investor sentiment in Asia. Major indexes in the region are reduced in response to the continued decrease in quotations of prices for oil and metals, as well as corporate results. Today poorly reported Westpac Banking Corp., The second largest commercial banks of Australia, and Chimei Innolux Corp., a Taiwanese manufacturer of liquid crystal screens, quotes of their shares now decrease by more than 1,5%. In China, Hong Kong and Shanghai indexes lose 0,95-1,25% amid growing fears of investors that the government will continue to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation despite signs of a slowdown in the economy. In April, the index of business activity in the industry in China, PMI Manufacturing, fell to 52.9 points from 53.4 points in March. Shanghai Securities News today, citing unofficial sources reported that the State may extend the restrictions on the purchase of real estate and prices and other cities, thus they will act not only in major metropolitan areas. - Today the EUR/USD duet decreases 0.16% and makes 1.48 in the background of demand decrease for risk assets in Asia, connected with the concern on further toughen of the monetary policy in PRC. Positive dynamics of American macroeconomic indices makes the investors to review their point of view on the stability of the dollar. During past week the euro could not bear the resistance level and overcome 1.49, which led to the duet's about-face and decrease. The expected growth of the number of employees in agriculture for 195,000 and rise of non-produce index ISM for 57.5 points would both support the dollar. In Eurozone the decrease of retail volume is forecasted according to the totals of the month. So, the 1.475-1.478 movement is predicted. - The "bear" mood still possesses the markets. Copper futures in New-York and Shanghai decrease 1% today, on the e-trade in London the quotations go down 0.5%. The pressure is caused by the concern on the fact that PRC governmental measures of restraining the inflation could lead to decrease in demand for metals. Oil quotations are in minus too, decreasing at the e-trade in New York for 0.5%. The weak demand in USA plays its role too, reflecting in the increase of raw oil stock. Gold goes down 0.2%, due to the continuous dollar strengthening. - The dynamics of trade in Europe and USA will be affected by macroeconomic data. The statistics on employment in private sector, made by ADP agency, comes out in USA today. The 198,000 growth of workplaces is expected in April, as against 201,000 in March. S&P index futures today decrease 0.4%. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.6 6.2 Sell -6.5 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 509.5 452.0 Sell -11.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 210.0 226.0 Sell +7.6 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.7 13.6 Buy +40.2 HALYK BANK KASE 366.0 474.0 Buy +29.5 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE - 237.0 Buy - HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy - BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 516.6 - Neutral n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Oil-and-Gas: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 22.5 22.7 Hold +1 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 19,250.0 20,062.0 Hold +4 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.95 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,332.0 1,427.0 Hold +7 ENRC LSE 901.0 1,216.0 Buy +35 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 2.1 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 4.2 3.3 Sell -21 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,600.0 33,825.0 Buy +73 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 43.3 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-05-04]