Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for April 28, 2011
28.04.11 16:41
/IRBIS. April 28, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a
survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for April
27, 2011.
The analysts are expecting a mixed and multidimensional opening
on KASE in the inconsistent exterior background. During the day, the
KASE index stock quotations dynamics will depend on Western
investors.
Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" expect the following
developments in international markets today:
- The money supply increased 3.7% in March. The money
supply in Kazakhstan went up 3.7% in March (4.4% from the
beginning of the year) up to 8,923,9 billion KZT, the National
Bank reported. The cash volume increased 0.5% as a month
(4.5% decrease from the beginning of the year) up to 1 trillion
97.1 billion KZT, the banking system deposits - 4.2% (5.8%
from the beginning of the year) up to 7,826.7 billion KZT. The
stand-by funds increased 6.8% for March (9.2% from the
beginning of the year) up to 2,810.2 billion KZT, thin funds
(excluding the fixed deposits of STB in National Bank) - 9.7%
(9.7%) up to 2,351.4 billion KZT.
- SP predicts the Kazakhstani GDP to increase 7% between
2011-2013. Kazakhstani GDP would increase over 7%
between 2011-2013, on the version of Standard Poor's rating
agency. The possibility of doubling the oil production by 2020
and structurally stable net DFI making 8% of GDP for the year,
strengthens our standpoint, according to which the GDP will
grow more than 7% in 2011-2013. Such huge economic
restore would probably lead to the cyclic improvement to the
balanced level of extended government's fiscal activity by
2013", - the report informs. In particular, the Kazakhstani GDP
would increase 8%, due to the prognosis. It's notable that the
raw materials sector is still dominating in the economics of
Kazakhstan, it's due not only to small-sized economics, but
also to great raw materials stock. While the state sector
finances will always suffer the corrections connected with the
trade conditions, the predicted growth of raw materials
extraction will differentiate Kazakhstan from many other "oil"
economics. 25% of the GDP and 60% of export goes to oil
production sector. 75% of DFI are sent to oil-and-gas sector.
SP expects the proficit balance of current operations account
to change indo deficit in 2011 because of import increase, and
the gap would be financed from DFI. The agency expects DFI
to make 6% of the GDP and increase to 8% during the
prognosis period. Probably, the lack of financial possibilities for
crediting at banks would restrain the restoration of domestic
demand and the service sector. Low increase of crediting is
one of the main reasons of the banking system assets.
"Problems with the credit portfolio quality lowered a bit, but
most of the banks will have to drop a great part of doubtful and
hopeless credits. With the lack of the strict algorithm of the
pledged estate the government and the banks act cautiously
and don't hurry with selling the estate on low-volume market.
So we don't expect the "reload" of banking sector or the
settlement of most problems-causing credits in 2011", - the
report says. Kazakhstan has the following sovereignty ratings:
on the liability in foreign currency - BBB/Stable/A-3, on liability
in domestic currency - BBB+/Stable/A-2, on national scale -
kzAAA.
- Bank Center Credit had published its financial audit report
for 2010. The year has ended with loss for the bank. The main
problem is the decrease of net percentage margin, which is the
result of high liquidity level and the increase of provision on
credit assets. Soon the analysts would review their model of
estimating "BankCenterCredit" JCS stocks.
- Kazkommertzbank starts the road show on Eurobond
production on May, 2. Kazakhstani Kazkomertzbank (KKB)
has set JP Morgan and UBS Investment Bank as the rulers of
Eurobond production on 144a/RegS rule, the bank's message
reports. According to it, keeping the market conjuncture into
account, the dealing is expected to be arranged after the
meeting with the American and British investors, which is to
start from May 2, 2011. As informed, the KKB governing
declared on the beginning of April that they don't exclude the
possibility of Eurobond production in 2011. KKB adopted the
new euroobligations in amount of $2 billion. Great Britain's
listing service has approved the basic prospect of this program
last autumn. The bank has thought of a possibility of placing
the Eurobond for the period of 7 years and to the amount of
$750 million, but dropped it after the October road show. "BCC
Invest" JCS analysts don't expect this news to affect the
stock quotations and GDR of Kazkommertsbank, because
the governing of the bank earlier declared about the
possibility of obtaining extra funds by producing the
Eurobond in 2011. The analysts keep the recommendation
"NEUTRAL" on bank's stocks and GDR.
Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" also expect the following
developments in international markets today:
- The publication of international reserves is expected today in
Russia.
- Today the import price index at 12:00 (AST) and data on
unemployment level at 13:55 (AST) will be published in
Germany. France will publish the data on consumption
expenses at 12:45(AST), and Italy - the data on trade books at
14:00 (AST).
- USA will publish the data on the economic activity of the
Chicago FRB, personal consumption, GDP price index, basic
consumption price index and also on primary and secondary
applies for unemployment benefit at 18:30 (AST). The index of
consumption comfort from Bloomberg will be published at
19:45(AST). The data on incomplete estate dealings will be
published at 20:00 (AST). The reports will be provided by the
following companies: Exxon Mobil Corp, Microsoft Corp,
Procter & Gamble Co, Royal Dutch Shell PLC, PepsiCo Inc,
China Telecom Corp Ltd, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp,
Bank of China Ltd, China Construction Bank Corp, Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, Rosneft Oil Co,
Gazprom OAO, Honda Motor Co Ltd, Nomura Holdings Inc,
Bayer AG, and others.
Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for
investors in securities of issuers in internal market:
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Last price Target Potential,
Issuer Code price % Recommenda-
tion
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Kazkommertsbank KKGB 485 583 +20.21 Neutral
KKGBp 225 196 -12.89 Neutral
Halyk Bank HSBK 362 415 +14.64 Hold
Bank CenterCredit CCBN 515 646 +25.44 Hold
Tsesnabank TSBN 865 1,030 +19.08 Neutral
KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 19,550 20,500 +4.86 Hold
Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 3,270 3,870 +18.35 Buy
ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,220 2,550 +14.86 Hold
Kazakhtelekom KZTK 19,600 Review
KZTKp 9,700 9,300 -4.12 Hold
MREK MREK 1,100 1,130 +0.03 Hold
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The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer
or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis
doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material.
[2011-04-28]