Overview of key developments from analysts of Asyl Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) on February 25, 2011

/IRBIS, February 25, 2011/ - JSC ASYL INVEST (Almaty) provided IRBIS overview of major events and of their investment ideas and forecasts on February 25, 2011. Analysts of JSC ASYL INVEST note that trading on the Kazakhstan stock market on Thursday resulted in the growth of KASE index is mainly due to the increase in prices of shares of KMG EP at 5.2% amid a sharp rise in oil prices. Additional support for the index has increased stake in CMC 2.5%. Trading in shares and depositary receipts of Kazakhstan issuers on the London Stock Exchange on Thursday ended with multidirectional price dynamics. Relative to clarify the situation in Libya has reduced the pressure on the tender. The current regime has lost control of the main oil-producing facilities in the east of the country and currently maintains only its capital. ENRC shares were down 1.5%, Kazakhmys shares were up 0.6%. GDR KMG (3.5%) continued to show growth under the influence of rising oil prices. Today, the external background for the Kazakhstan stock market develops neutral. Weaker decline today is likely to be observed in the shares of mining companies. Shares of KMG EP are likely to continue to show growth against the backdrop of the resumption of growth in oil prices. In addition, the analysts of JSC ASYL INVEST note the following events in world markets: - The Dow Jones Industrial Index and the broad market S & P 500 during the session on Thursday were down 1%, and high-tech index NASDAQ Composite - more than 0.5%, but the correction of oil in the afternoon led to the restoration of the indices. As a result, the major U.S. stock indexes finished the day with mixed results. Impact on reducing the index within the day provided fears of market participants about social and political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa. Futures for WTI crude oil fell to $ 97.28 per barrel with a maximum intraday level of $ 103 per barrel. As a consequence, stocks, Oil & Gas lost 1.37%. Economic statistics published on Thursday, was mixed. U.S. Department of Labor published a report according to which the number of initial claims for unemployment benefit in the week February 12-19, taking into account the correction for seasonal variations decreased by 22 thousand to 391 thousand Economists had forecast decline of this indicator to 405 thousand four-week average declined to 16.5 thousand to 418.5 thousand, which indicates the improvement in the labor market. However, for a significant improvement in the labor market indicator should be in the range of 300-330 thousand drop in this indicator to levels possibly at the level of unemployment below 7%. Data on orders for durable goods were generally quite good. In January, orders for durable goods rose by 2.7% (almost at the level of expectations) are mainly due to the growth of vehicles by 27.6%. Without regard to means of transport rate in January fell by 3.6%. However, the fall in excluding vehicles in January mitigated by the fact that the value of growth in December was revised from 0.5% to 3%. Likewise can be said about the benchmark of orders, which in January fell by 6.9%. Revision of the benchmark in December and its decline in January now leaves it to the level of growth at 9% on an annualized basis over the past three months. In general, data on orders for durable goods give reason to expect growth in business investment spending in the 1st quarter of 2011 and, given the tax breaks and low interest rates, real GDP growth for the first quarter above 3%. Published on Thursday, data from the primary housing market showed a drop in sales in January at 12.6%. Economists forecast a drop of 7.3%. Analysts of JSC ASYL INVEST believe that the drop rate probably was due to growth in demand for so-called "distressed properties" (real estate, sold by the owner because of financial problems, or for sale mortgage holder). This property is for sale cheaper than ordinary housing by about 35%. Therefore, falling sales in the primary housing market and further in order to compete with sellers of distressed properties will reduce the price of primary housing market and further to the circular bottom. It is unknown what will change in future sales of the primary housing market. Growth in mortgage rates and relatively high initial fee is a serious obstacle to the recovery of the market. - Today, the nature of trading in the U.S. will largely depend on the external background, how will happen next in the Middle East and North Africa. The April futures for WTI crude oil again moved into the growth of today, and rising oil prices pose a serious threat to the successful recovery of developed economies. In the event that oil prices once again exceed the level of $ 100, and the situation in the Middle East and North Africa, exacerbated, the major U.S. stock indexes could fall today, especially considering that today is the last day of trading this week. Economic statistics likely impact on the bidding will not. Only in the case of significant deviations of actual data on real GDP growth for the IV quarter of a second evaluation of the predictive values of likely impact of economic data on the course of trading shares. - Major stock indexes in Western Europe continued to suffer losses on the background of social and political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa. Negative influence on the trades had a sharp rise in oil prices amid reports that Libyan leader Gaddafi ordered the saboteurs blow up oil pipelines. Against this backdrop, prices of Brent oil significantly accelerated the growth, surpassing the mark of $ 117/barr. - Today, trading on major stock markets in Western Europe will largely be determined by the mood of investors in connection with the situation in the Middle East and North Africa. Today in Europe will leave the economic data. Of the major economic statistics are expected publication of data on the consumer price index for February in Germany and the UK GDP data for the second estimate for the IV quarter. - Major stock indexes in the Asian region are now showing growth. Hang Seng index is growing at 1.6%, primarily due to growth in stock prices of airlines. This material is for informational purposes and is not an offer or recommendation to perform any transaction in securities. Agency IRBIS is not responsible for the opinions expressed in this material. [2011-02-25]