Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for February 17, 2011

/IRBIS, February 17, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for February 17, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - For the domestic market news background while moderately negative. Obviously, the stock market at the moment there are no strong ideas for progress upward. Industrial metals and oil prices are at a maximum, which casts doubt on the prospects of growth stocks of commodity companies. The fall in copper prices will put pressure on the Kazakhmys. ENRC and KMG are unlikely to go against market sentiment. On the shares of the banking sector likely next fixation profits. Prime candidate for a fall Kazkommertsbank, the first half of February, the issuer's increased in price by almost 29%. - Asian stock market today shows mixed dynamics, positive effect on the statistics from the U.S. on new buildings and optimism the Federal Reserve deducted in the minutes of last meeting FOMC reacts only to the Japanese market growth stock prices of exporters. The Chinese market presented indices Hang-Seng and Shanghai Composite, is reduced in response to a decrease in stock prices of construction companies. The reason for their decline was the decrease in the volume of new loans in January, and the message of the Central Television of China that Beijing will limit the purchase of homes by residents of the country. - Today, the dollar continues to fall against the euro. The Fed has raised its forecast for U.S. growth this year with 3-3.6% to 3.4-3.9%. However, it was noted that the increase in forecast does not mean that the unemployment situation in the country has improved. Such a statement once again dispelled the market expectations regarding the early collapse of the program QE2. Data on industrial production are putting pressure on the buck in the Asian session. Couple adds 0.13% and traded at 1.3587. Today, once again implied volatility dynamics on the background of the publication of such macro-data as an index of consumer confidence in the Euro zone, as well as the amount of unemployment benefits and all the expected CPI. - In the market of raw materials is observed in the whole negative dynamics. Yesterday's substantial increase in oil prices today, restrain the appetite of players who have decided to record profits at the level of almost $ 104 per barrel. Today the "black gold" Brent cheaper at 0.25%. Copper in Shanghai today falls in price by 0.5%, the growth of the world's "red metal", restrictions on the purchase of real estate in China, as well as the frequent hikes in China since October detrimental effect on the mood of the players about the prospects for growth in demand for metal. - Today, the situation on foreign markets will be determined by macroeconomic statistics across the USA. Today released a wide block, which includes data on the dynamics of the consumer price index in January, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week, the index of business activity in the district of Philadelphia in February, and the index of leading indicators in January. By Core inflation rate is expected to slowdown to 0.3% from 0.5% a month earlier. On food inflation growth rate will remain at the previous month - 0.1%. For the rest of the macro-indicators of expected positive trend. Inflation expectations in the framework must support the growth of the market, because it means saving incentives. If the predictions come true for other indicators, possible growth of markets on optimism about U.S. economic recovery. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price 2010 year mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 7.9 n/a Review n/a KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 570.0 n/a Review n/a KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 230.0 n/a Review n/a HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 11.0 n/a Review n/a HALYK BANK KASE 405.0 n/a Review n/a HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 n/a Review n/a HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - n/a Review n/a BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 656.0 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 21.8 22.7 Hold +4 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 19,800.0 20,062.0 Hold +1 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.02 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,538.0 1,427.0 Hold -7 ENRC LSE 1,008.0 1,216.0 Buy +21 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 3.3 7.0 Buy +113 URANIUM ONE LSE 6.0 3.3 Sell -45 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 20,000.0 33,825.0 Buy +69 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 52.5 n/a Review n/a -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-02-17]