Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for January 25, 2011

/IRBIS. January 25, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for January 25, 2011. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" now expect a negative opening of trading on the background of a decrease in stocks and depositary receipts of Kazakhstan issuers yesterday in London. Further, during the day at the KASE trading dynamics would be volatile. JSC "BCC Invest" also notes the following important events in the Kazakh market: - Government, National Bank and the FSA of the Republic of Kazakhstan issued a joint statement regarding the direction economic policy in 2011. In 2011, the economic policies pursued by the Government, the National Bank and the FSA will focus on: improving the competitiveness of Kazakhstan's economy, the implementation of programs aimed at diversifying the economy, the state program of forced industrial- innovative development, provision of stable employment and income growth; implementation of state programs for the development of human capital, including education, health and development of languages. Improving the competitiveness will be achieved by ensuring macroeconomic stability, improve investment and business climate, institutional development, the level of technological development and innovation, quality, human resource development of the country, as well as reducing trade barriers and increased economic integration within the vehicle and the EEA. In general, financial sector development will be carried out in accordance with the Concept of development of the financial sector in the Republic of Kazakhstan in the post-crisis period. Thus, conducted in 2011, the economic policy of the Government, the National Bank and the FSA will ensure that real GDP growth at 4-5%, keeping inflation in the corridor of 6-8%. - The international rating agency StandardPoor's changed its outlook on Kazakh banks - Kazkommertsbank (CMC), Nurbank JSC and AsiaCredit Bank from Negative to Stable. Simultaneously, the agency has confirmed long-and short-term credit ratings previously assigned to these banks, the report indicates SP. In addition, the rating agency assigned Nurbank "kzBB +" on a national scale. So, confirmed long-term and short-term counterparty credit ratings on CMC and Nurbank at 'B/C, long-term and short-term counterparty credit ratings of JSC "AsiaCredit Bank" at' B/B '. "Stable outlook" reflects diminished, in our opinion, outside pressure on financial performance and business profile of these banks, and our expectation that these banks have to "cleanse" their loan portfolios, maintain a balanced approach to managing funding and liquidity, and will be able to support adequate capitalization, "- explains the SP. The rating action, the report indicates, reflects the stabilization of the conditions of banking activities after the restructuring of the three banks in Kazakhstan (BTA Temirbank and Alliance Bank) that have been in default in 2010. "We note the reduction in pressure on asset quality, liquidity and profitability of domestic banks, which in the past three years are at increased risk," - said in a statement. SP expects that in the short and medium term indicators of asset quality, the banks will be steadily increasing, as in 2010 they reached their lowest point, while the reserves will be sufficient liquidity to repay borrowings incurred in the capital markets, and payments to depositors (above all entities associated with the state), to pull their money from these banks. In addition, the agency assumes that banks maintain adequate capitalization, which will enable them less exposed to risks inherent in the economy and the banking sector in Kazakhstan. In January 2011, a preliminary assessment BICRA (assessment of country risk of the banking sector), Kazakhstan has been identified as a 9 on a scale from 1 (lowest risk) to 10 (highest risk). "All ratings are based on our evaluation of the characteristics of their own creditworthiness of those banks and do not include any" allowances "for the opportunity to receive extra support from parent groups or states" - said the SP. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" and expect the following developments in international markets today: - In Russia the publication of important economic statistics are expected. - in Germany 13:00 (AST) will be published data on consumer confidence index from the GfK. At 13:45 (AST) in France will be published data on consumer spending. At 15:30 (AST) in the UK will be published GDP data, the index of activity in the service sector, public finance and public sector net borrowing. - U.S. at 20:00 (AST) will be published data from S & P/CaseShiller on the composite index of home prices. At 21:00 (AST) will be published data on consumer confidence, the index of house prices and the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. - Today reports Siemens AG, United States Steel Corp, American Express Co, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson, Yahoo! Inc and others. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in the domestic Kazakh market:: ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Target Predicted price. code price % Recom- mendation ----------------- ------- ---------- ------ ---------------- --------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 460 479 +4.13 Neutral KKGBp 210 335 +59.52 Buy Halyk Bank HSBK 383 386 +0.78 Buy Bank CenterCredit CCBN 661 646 -2.27 Hold Tsesnabank TSBN 865 1,030 +19.08 Neutral KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 19,700 22,300 +13.20 Buy Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 3,600 3,977 +10.47 Hold ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,400 2,298 -4.25 Neutral Kazakhtelekom KZTK 19,739 19,200 -2.73 Hold KZTKp 9,300 9,300 0 Hold MREK MREK 1,100 1,130 +2.73 Hold ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-01-25]