Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for January 24, 2011

/IRBIS, January 24, 2011/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for January 24, 2011. Analysts of IFH RESMI give attention to the following to the important events in the markets: - Friday's trading session was marked by the index falling KASE. Value of the local benchmark fell to 1.02% and amounted to 1,815.29 points. Growth of Kazakhstan's stock market indicator for the week amounted to 1%, and since the beginning of the year - 6.6%. Bank shares continue to decline CenterCredit GEO Upside to close by the end of the trading session higher quotations on 3.1%. In the second tier of Representatives "green zone" appeared Corporation Kazakhmys Plc and the company KMG Exploration and Production, paper which went up by 1.1% and 1.0% respectively. Corporation ENRC Plc and The People's Bank showed a decrease in stock prices by 3.1% and 1.8% respectively. Kazakhtelecom in the red (-0.5%). On Friday, January 21, trading GDRs and shares of Kazakh companies in London were in different directions. HSBK LI (-1.0%), KKB LI (0.0%), KMG LI (-0.7%), KAZ LN (+0.4%), ERNC LN (+0.3%). Today, for the local market develops moderately positive external background. Expected lateral dynamics during the trading day on the Kazakhstan stock market. - U.S. stock indexes closed down differently. This week is scheduled for release quarterly reports of several companies that form the index of Dow Jones. According to many investors at the moment the market is overbought on the brink, and even positive reports from companies hardly will contribute to a significant increase in stock market indicator. The Dow Jones closed by growth of 49.04 points (0.41%) and amounted to 11,871.84 points. S & P 500 rose 3.09 points (0.24%) and secure at 1,283.35 points. European stock exchanges were closed on a positive note. The German DAX closed by growth of 38.15 points (0.54%), and secure on a mark of 4,017.45 points. The British FTSE 100 index showed growth for 28.34 points (0.48%) and amounted to 5,896.25 points. Today in the Euro zone manufacturing index will publish PMI Manufacturing. - RockTenn Co. (NYSE: RKT) announced today that it agreed to buy Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. (NYSE: SSCC) for $ 3.5 billion, which will make a joint corporation, the second largest company on manufacture of packaging in North America after International Paper Co. Task Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. in 2009, declared bankruptcy, but last year, overcame the difficulties by selling a few plants and reducing staff by 10%. Projected to top management joint production will be 9.4 million tons of production capacity, including 7.5 million tones of production of container products. Both companies agreed to a price of $ 35 per share, which consists of 50% cash and 50% of the shares RockTenn. Transaction was executed with a coefficient of 6.1 x EBITDA Smurfit-Stone in the $ 820 million for the latest reporting period compared with a coefficient of 8.4 x in a similar transaction Rank Group Ltd in 2009, owned by New Zealand billionaire Graemu Hart. The total price, including net debt and pension liabilities, represents a premium of 27% of the value of the shares Smurfit-Stone following on January 21, 2011 Award is a standard for this market and remains until the opening exchanges. Analysts of IFD "RESMI" expect the bidding will start with a break from the closing price last week. The transaction will close in the second quarter of this year and must be approved by both regulators and shareholders of both companies. January 21 RockTenn price fell 0.6% to $ 50.78. Share has risen in price by 16% over the past year. The cost of Smurfit-Stone Container climbed 3.2% to $ 27.52 per security. - At the end of last week on the commodity markets are multidirectional trade. Grid precious metals closed down prices in the range -4.4% - - 0.64%. Silver is the most subjected to impairment - 4.4%. Tin and aluminum (alloy) were in the vanguard of rising prices among industrial metals, to close the growth of 1.8% and 1.7% respectively. Brent crude closed higher by 1.2%, with the price (spot) reached $ 97.3 per barrel. Sugar and wheat prices have continued to close in the previous trading day, increasing by 3.3% and 2.6% respectively. Euro continues to storm new heights, fixing rate against the U.S. dollar at 1 euro/$ 1.3621. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI. Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 464 On Review 397 59.78 Halyk bank 383 519 35.5% 507 56.14 Bank Center Credit 670 On Review 1,007 82.30 RD KMG 19,700 On Review 23,266 72.99 Kazkhtelekom 19,700 On Review 25,600 79.52 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought/oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100%/0%. - Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; - Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's shares up to KZT409 per share; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to the level of 1.230 m.; - Stocks of Kazakhtelecom are looking most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. - The updated target price of shares of JSC Exploration Production KMG is KZT24.895 per share. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-01-24]