Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for December 8, 2010

/IRBIS. December 8, 2010/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for December 8, 2010. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" now expect a positive opening of trading on the shares included in the index KASE, against growth of stock quotes and depository receipts of Kazakhstan issuers yesterday in London, however, in today's possible profit-taking by investors after an impressive growth of quotations of individual stocks, and Index KASE, probably end the day little change. Yesterday, December 7, 2010, JSC "BCC Invest" has released a new survey by Kazakhmys PLC. Target price - 1,713 pence (3,977 KZT), recommendation - to "hold". JSC "BCC Invest" also notes the following important events in the Kazakh market: - National Bank of Kazakhstan from 2011 can return to a managed float exchange rate of tenge. "From next year, will return to a managed float exchange rate of tenge. This wide corridor is not needed," - noted the head of the National Bank Mr. Grigory Marchenko at the press conference on Tuesday in Almaty. He noted that this decision must be approved by the board of the National Bank. "We hope that the board, which includes not only representatives of the National Bank, would agree," - he said. In this case, Mr. Marchenko said that the previously established corridor will operate on 20 March 2011. According to him, the currency corridor, introduced last year and expanded this year, has proved its usefulness." "Everyone is seen that tenge currency as a stable in the past year - 12-13 months. That is a special need to maintain the corridor we have not seen" - Mr. G. Marchenko said. The head of the National Bank also said that if current high commodity prices in 2011, the tenge will be strengthened. According to him, if we take the real effective exchange rate (including inflation), then in February 2009 when it was held in Kazakhstan, the devaluation of national currency, the tenge appreciated in real terms by 8% against the basket of currencies. "Therefore, when such a situation in which the nominal exchange rate is stable, but in real terms tenge strengthened somewhat, we, the National Bank, is quite satisfied," - he said. The head of the National Bank also said that if current market situation is no reason to expect devaluation in Kazakhstan in 2011. He also recalled that the National Bank in sufficiently large volumes of currency bought the first four months of this year, and then half a year almost did not buy it and its net interventions were near zero. Only in November, he said, National Bank bought $ 650 million. - President Nursultan Nazarbayev has signed the law "On republican budget for 2011-2013." Text of Law on Tuesday published in the official press. As reported, revenues and expenditures of the republican budget for 2011 is planned in the amount of KZT4 trillion 041 billion and KZT4 trillion 643.8 billion, respectively. The national budget deficit in 2011 is planned in the amount of 602.5 billion KZT (2.8% of GDP). Income from the national budget for 2012 is planned in the amount 4000000000000 365 billion KZT in 2013 - 4 trillion 770 billion KZT, expenses for 2012 are planned in the amount of 4 trillion 947 billion KZT in 2013 - 5 trillion 152 billion KZT. The budget is based on socio-economic development of Kazakhstan for 2011-2015, according to which the world oil price is projected at $ 65 per barrel, while world prices for metals will grow on average by 10-15%. - Limit government debt for 2011 set at $ 3 trillion 200 billion KZT. This amount is incorporated in the law "On republican budget for 2011-2013," signed by President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan and released Tuesday by the official media. Thus, the limit of government debt for 2011 is set in the amount of 15% expected for that period's GDP. Limit the provision of government guarantees for 2011 set at $ 65 billion KZT, limit the provision of state guarantees of 50 billion KZT. In the national budget for 2011 also provided funds amounting to 1 billion 747 million 853 thousand KZT for repayment and servicing of government guaranteed loans. The volume of Kazakhstan's GDP in 2011, according to official forecasts will be 21 trillion 213.3 billion KZT. - Renaissance Capital Ltd., a Russian investment bank suing the Central African Mining and Exploration Co, the African division of Eurasian Natural Resource Corporation PLC because of unpaid fees at 9 million pounds (14 million U.S. dollars) for the financial advice on mergers and acquisitions , according to news portal Bloomberg. CAMEC, bought by ENRC in September last year for 584 million pounds, not in accordance with the terms of the contract with an investment bank regarding the payment of consulting services. Hugh Morrison, the speaker of ENRC, has declined to comment on this situation. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" does not believe that this news may have a significant impact on stock quotes, ENRC, and retain the recommendation to "hold" with a target price of 2,298 KZT (998 GBp). Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" and expect the following developments in international markets today: - Russia is expected to publish data on the Consumer Price Index for the week and the beginning of the year. - In Germany, B13: 00 (AST) is expected to publish data on the balance of the budget and trade balance for October. At 13:30 (AST) in France is expected to publish data on an index of business sentiment from the Bank of France, and in 13:45 (AST) on exports, imports, payments and trade balance for October. At 17:00 (AST) in Germany is expected to publish data on industrial production for October, and in the UK on Trends Total Orders from the Confederation of British Industry. - U.S. at 02:00 (AST) and 04:00 (AST), were published data on consumer credit for October and the index of consumer confidence from ABC, respectively. Today, at 18:00 (AST), are expected to publish data on applications for mortgages from the MBA in November. - Today reports Kunlun Energy Co Ltd., H & R Block Inc., And others. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market: ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Target Predicted price. code price % Recom- mendation ----------------- ------- ---------- ------ ---------------- --------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 420 479 +14.05 Neutral KKGBp 210 335 +59.52 Buy Halyk Bank HSBK 365 386 +5.75 Buy Bank CenterCredit CCBN 590 646 +9.49 Hold Tsesnabank TSBN 865 1,030 +19.08 Neutral KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 17,700 22,300 +25.99 Buy Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 3,600 3,977 +10.47 Neutral ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,200 2,298 +1.45 Buy Kazakhtelekom KZTK 17,400 19,200 +10.34 Buy KZTKp 8,500 9,300 +9.41 Buy MREK MREK 1,100 1,130 +2.73 Hold ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-12-08]