Market reveiws and recommendations of Financial Company REAL INVEST.KZ (Kazakhstan) analysts on November 23, 2010
23.11.10 16:13
/IRBIS, November 23, 2010/ - JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz
(Almaty, REAL Invest.kz) provided to IRBIS overview of major developments
in Kazakhstan and the world markets on November 23, 2010.
JSC Financial Company REAL Invest.kz notes the following significant
developments on the world stock, commodity and currency market:
- bidding for major venues in Europe and the United States on Monday
ended mostly with falling indices. Debt problems of the peripheral
countries of the Euro zone, it was a little faded after the official
request of the representatives of the Irish government for financial
assistance to neighboring countries in the Euro zone, recaptured
market participants who believe that the salvation of Ireland will not
solve all problems in the region, as well as they did not resolve after
help Greece in the spring. The number of so-called PIGS - fines for
exceeding the maximum permissible level of budget deficit, as well as
Greece and Ireland also includes Portugal and Spain, while if the
amount of assistance needed to save the situation in Portugal is
approximately equal to the specialists packages for Greece and
Ireland, Spain, seems to require an order of magnitude greater
leverage. Following the auction, the major European indexes fell in
the range from 0.9% - to 1.1%, U.S. indices, traded in mid-session
decline slightly less than 1% by the end of the day the situation
straightened, recording only a modest decrease in quotations. Today
in the United States will be published interim data on GDP growth in
the third quarter, as well as data from the secondary housing market.
News from the Euro zone, we note the publication of final data on
German GDP in the same third quarter.
- Site emerging markets finished the day lower. Quartet of BRIC -
defining the economies of the developing countries on Monday noted
the substantial drop in prices the major indexes, amid negative
external background from the West. An additional factor contributing
to the decline, made the correction in commodity areas, in particular,
oil prices after a few days, the weak correction again almost back to
the recent local minima. Today in Brazil, will be published current
account balance, it is expected that in October it was negative in the
amount of $ 3.7 billion for Premarket sites emerging markets "REAL
Invest.kz" regards as moderately negative, Asian area started with
the sales.
- Oil prices on Monday fell slightly less than 2%, against the formation
of generally negative external background, in connection with the debt
problems of some European countries. Correction of quotations,
which was held in the second half of last week, apparently complete,
but it is likely that the level of support for "black gold" at the moment is
focused not on the mark at $ 80 per barrel, as expected, most
experts, and points above - to level of $ 81 per barrel. In the short
term, with approximately equal probability that oil prices may continue
as a downward trend (in the case of breakout level of $ 81), and to
begin the consolidation (if not breaking through the level).
- quotes troy ounce of gold once again delight us with its predictability -
to date forecast of "REAL Invest.kz" one and a half week fully
implement the prescription - the price of "noble metal" show
consolidation, with a very moderate growth of quotations. According
to the forecast of "REAL Invest.kz", similar dynamics in gold prices
may last for at least several weeks, with analysts of "REAL Invest.kz"
do not exclude the volatile jumps from time to time will interrupt the
price corridor.
- being realized forecast of "REAL Invest.kz" regarding a quick
downward continuation of the dynamics of regional European
currency, while it is expected that the positive effect of helping Ireland
to be short-lived, and soon completely leveled amid fears for the
aggravation of these problems in Spain and Portugal. In the short
term, an important marker is the level at 1.35, after which the
penetration level of approximately at around 1.33 mark a break
through the lower boundary of the medium-term uptrend.
- much better than the current situation in the British pound, which on
Monday fell by 0.4%, and closed only slightly above the mark to 1.59.
On the daily chart are still positive semi uptrend, but the current level
of quotations is located on the bottom of the range.
Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" noted that the most attractive stories
among the shares of Kazakh companies are RD Kazmunaigas,
Kazakhtelecom and Halyk Bank. Especially attractive look and EP
Kazakhtelecom, as both companies are very strong balance sheet with
low debt burden, the EP's net debt at all negative, i.e. cash flows of the
company exceed liabilities. Besides their business generates more free
cash flow, which allows them to pay a very solid dividends. Dividend
income on preferred shares of KMG and Kazakhtelecom is 6-8% and 3-
4% of ordinary shares. Shares of these companies are traded much
cheaper than the shares of similar companies in other emerging markets.
This material is for informational purposes and is not an offer or recommendation
to perform any transaction in securities. Agency IRBIS is not responsible for the
opinions expressed in this material.
[2010-11-23]