Market reveiws and recommendations of Financial Company REAL INVEST.KZ (Kazakhstan) analysts on October 25, 2010
25.10.10 18:54
/IRBIS, October 25, 2010/ - JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz
(Almaty, REAL Invest.kz) provided to IRBIS overview of major developments
in Kazakhstan and the world markets on October 25, 2010.
JSC Financial Company REAL Invest.kz notes the following significant
developments on the world stock, commodity and currency market:
- major venues in Europe and the U.S. have closed a small
multidirectional change quotations. The final trading session of the
eventful week has turned out not too effective. On the background of
the lack of publication of important macroeconomic indicators as well
as a short respite, taken corporate reporting season, market
participants were in no hurry to force things, the more so for the
upcoming weekend is expected to G20 finance ministers' meeting in
Seoul. Despite the fact that the real productivity of the summit "Big
Twenty" is now very few people expect, yet it is clear that the
statements of leaders of top-20 countries, may affect market
sentiment, and thus its dynamics. Trades in Europe on Friday ended
a moderate decrease in the range 0.3%, with less than all the lost
German DAX (-0.1%), which contributed to the publication of current
values of the index of business optimism IFO, which is contrary to the
expectations of analysts falling to 0.3 points instead increased by 0.8
points. Trades in the U.S. were sluggish, while if the Dow Jones index
during the session lazily consolidated below the opening level, the
S&P 500 showed similar dynamics, trading in positive territory.
Following the auction, Dow Jones fell by 0.13%, S & P 500 rose
0.24%. Over the past week's CAC 40 rose 1.07%, reaching a new
six-month peak at around 3,878 points, DAX increased by about
1.76%, FTSE has grown by 0.67%. Dow Jones up to the reporting of
five trading sessions added to the capitalization of 0.63%, S & P 500
showed a similar result, an increase of 0,6%. This week in the U.S.
will be published the most important market data of primary and
secondary real estate, as well as changes in demand for durable
goods - quite optimistic analysts expect growth rate to 1.9%.
Corporate reporting season in the U.S. next week will culminate,
among the most important note out on Tuesday a report Arcelor Mittal
and US Steel, on Wednesday, ConocoPhillips, and Visa, on
Thursday, Coca-Cola Ent, Exxon Mobil, Motorola and Microsoft, on
Friday, is worth paying attention to the report of Chevron. In the euro
area, there are data on the dynamics of new production orders,
posting the current value of new loans, and on Friday will be known
September rate of unemployment - it is expected that the rate
remained unchanged at a level of 10.1%.
- the site of the developing countries on Friday closed mostly
decreasing bids. Major indices Four BRIC during the final trading
session of the week pretty much was feverish, and managed to close
in positive territory but the Russian RTS, adding up to the day 0.25%.
The remaining trio has fallen in the range 0.3% - 0.47%, against a
background correction of the basic raw material assets on Thursday.
As a result of the week three of the four BRIC countries have added
an index in the capitalization - BSE and the Shanghai Composite rose
0.2% and 0.13% respectively, RTS for the week rose by 1.68%. And
only on the basis of accounting Bovespa five trading sessions
collapsed 3.06%, which contributed to the statements by the Minister
of Finance of the country that soon may top foreign wars. The
upcoming G20 summit can lift the mood of the regional market
participants - is expected to shift the balance in the developing world
by more than 6%, which is quite clearly shows the interest of Western
countries in developing the capacity of developing countries.
- The cost of a barrel of oil brand "WTI" following Friday's trading grew
by 1,1% to level of $ 81.9. As a result of volatile week, during which
the quotation of "black gold" was first achieved growth of more than
2%, then approximately the same amount falls below the opening
week, quote changes are similar to the Friday - the final day of the
week, market participants have decided to start all over beginning.
Overall, three out of four weeks last October in a fairly narrow
consolidation within the price range of $ 81-83 per barrel, and almost
daily change of the candle from red to green and vice versa, suggests
tension and uncertainty, always accompanied the market participants.
The last time a similar pattern has developed just under a year ago
when the rather weak reports from companies, have transformed the
consolidation of oil prices in the three-week slide. This time, however,
the situation is somewhat different - most of the companies report
showed a profit for the third quarter, and a protracted period of
consolidation quotes summer, may well become one of the drivers for
purchases. In anticipation of the Fed meeting, which will probably be
launched "quantitative easing program 2", "REAL Invest.kz" does not
see significant reasons for the decline in oil prices, while at the same
time talking on the formed an uptrend, at least, premature.
- The cost of ounce of gold on the results of the last six trading
sessions to adjust on 4.37%. During the Friday session is
implemented the second part of the forecast "REAL Invest.kz" - to
achieve the quotations of "yellow metal" level of $ 1,300 per ounce, in
particular, bidding took place at the level of $ 1,315 - not enough for
quite a bit. Nevertheless, "REAL Invest.kz" believes that traders still
have a chance to change and subject to the immutability of the
current external background, next week is quite likely to trigger the
psychological level of $ 1,300. In general, the overall situation in the
medium term is more favorable for the growth of gold prices, rather
than for their slides, and the current correction can, according to
"REAL Invest.kz", significantly improve the upward trend, giving it
fresh impetus. Until the end of this year, expected to reach the mark
at $ 1,450 an ounce, while the level of $ 1,500, being too large, is
unlikely to be conquered in the past year.
- currency pair EUR/USD reconsolidated throughout the trading
session Friday and has not changed in value, closing at about the
start of trading. In general, create tensions in the currency market,
after the statements of some officials of the need for drastic measures
to reform the current global monetary system, the most direct impact
on trading on the currency market, where market participants, not
wanting to take additional risks, almost retired, that was the reason
that the euro is consolidating around the same price level during the
entire month. As an additional stopper serves a two-month non-stop
rally of European currencies, which, according to several players, led
to the overvalued euro. However, given the prospects of beginning a
"policy of quantitative easing in February", "REAL Invest.kz"
evaluates opportunities for growth in the euro as more realistic than
the strengthening of the dollar.
- British pound on the results of Friday's trading has lost about 0.6%, to
stay close to the level of support at around 1.565. Over the past week
GBP/USD pair has lost about 2%, and on the daily chart clearly
emerged script speedy completion of the upward trend, with its
subsequent transition to trend downward. "REAL Invest.kz" predicts
decrease in British currency in the short term to a level of 1.55, and
unless there is something substantial, capable of 180 degrees to
change the situation, the pair GBP/USD will continue to decrease in
quotations.
Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" noted that the most attractive stories
among the shares of Kazakh companies are RD Kazmunaigas,
Kazakhtelecom and Halyk Bank. Especially attractive look and EP
Kazakhtelecom, as both companies are very strong balance sheet with
low debt burden, the EP's net debt at all negative, i.e. cash flows of the
company exceed liabilities. Besides their business generates more free
cash flow, which allows them to pay a very solid dividends. Dividend
income on preferred shares of KMG and Kazakhtelecom is 6-8% and 3-
4% of ordinary shares. Shares of these companies are traded much
cheaper than the shares of similar companies in other emerging markets.
This material is for informational purposes and is not an offer or recommendation
to perform any transaction in securities. Agency IRBIS is not responsible for the
opinions expressed in this material.
[2010-10-25]