Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for October 19, 2010

/IRBIS, October 19, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for October 19, 2010. Analysts of IFH RESMI give attention to the following to the important events in the markets: - The situation in the U.S. housing market. In September, U.S. banks have seized 102,134 homes of citizens. In August this year without their own homes were 95,364 American families, this is not much below the September figure. In addition, a 3 percent increase in the number of notifications of foreclosure homes - 347 420. This category of potential citizens who could lose the roof over your head in the near future. Massive withdrawal of housing in favor of banks in the United States began in 2007 when it became clear that borrowers are unable to pay loans. This was one of the causes of the financial crisis in the country. The crisis, in turn, led to an additional increase in the number of seizures, as many people lost their jobs and opportunities to make payments. Thus, the sale of seized housing amounted to about one-third of all transactions in real estate. Due to the large number of seizures, the National Association of Prosecutors General of the United States began large-scale investigation into the banks for negligence and fraud. One of the conditions of the investigation is a prohibition on the confiscation and resale of "mortgage" houses. This could trigger a second wave of the U.S. mortgage crisis. In addition, in September this year the U.S. Bureau of qualifications reported that the proportion of financially disadvantaged people rose from 13.2 to 14.3 percent. But in absolute terms the number of Americans who fall under the category of "poor", has reached 43.6 million. Also housing the seized after an investigation by the National Association of Prosecutors General likely cause a significant cost reduction realized by the banks of residential real estate. In such a case is not known whether financial institutions themselves to cover their expenses. Thus, the second wave of the sub prime mortgage crisis could reach the volume of loans totaling $ 134-154 billion. As a result, analysts of IFD "RESMI" expected decline in mortgage rates on 30-year loans to 4.17% in the near future. Also, while maintaining the downward trend in house prices in the future, FIH "RESMI" considers it appropriate to invest in residential real estate dollars. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI. Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 440 796 80.9% 385 57.88 Halyk bank 330 409 23.9% 276 57.47 Bank Center Credit 600 1,218 103.0% 1,039 67.22 RD KMG 16,100 24,895 54.6% 23,600 49.24 Kazkhtelekom 15,500 33,842 118.3% 29,682 56.28 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0%. - Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; - Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's shares up to KZT409 per share; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to the level of 1.230 m.; - Stocks of Kazakhtelecom are looking most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. - The updated target price of shares of JSC Exploration Production KMG is KZT24.895 per share. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-10-19]