Market reveiws and recommendations of Financial Company REAL INVEST.KZ (Kazakhstan) analysts on August 16, 2010

/IRBIS, August 16, 2010/ - JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz (Almaty, REAL Invest.kz) provided to IRBIS overview of major developments in Kazakhstan and the world markets on August 16, 2010. JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz notes the following significant developments on the world stock, commodity and currency market: - major U.S. and European sites have completed the final session of the week sales. Posted on Friday macro statistics been mixed - so news of the quarterly growth of European GDP by 1.7%, which is 0.3% more than the preliminary forecasts were countered by a rather weak data from the United States, under which the consumer price index last month rose by 0,1% more than forecast, retail sales grew by exactly the same amount modestly - by 0.4%, with expectations of analysts, the growth of half a percentage point, in addition, consumer confidence index of Mich Sentiment-up warded in July added only 1.8 points, whereas it was meant to growth on 2.2 points. Market participants, obtaining sufficient evidence of the fact that the world's largest economy, the U.S., in a state of stagnation for the past week even reminded of the debt problems of the euro area, which is likely to be a new source of negatives, and decrease the likelihood of quotations in the short term, is now quite high. U.S. S & P 500 lost over the past week more than 3.5%, once again came close to an important mark of 1,050 points, in the case of penetration by the analysts "REAL Invest.kz" continues to believe, it is likely to achieve the level of 1,000 points, and even overcome it. At the current moment, the macroeconomic background sufficiently supports such a scenario, while the corporate reporting season, which is partially neutralized by the negative impact of markets, completed, and thus "bulls" will have helps to wait from nowhere. - platforms for emerging markets last week were also under pressure from the bears, and a reduction of up to five trading sessions of the four BRIC was: Bovespa fell by 2.68%, BSE at 0.12%, Shanghai Composite by 1.95% RTS has lost more than anyone, including a decrease by as much as 4.26%. Outer extremely negative background, prevailing of the regional platforms thanks reduction Quotes of the Western key of indexes, and commodity platforms dynamics negative, we view further predetermined reduction of indexes of developing countries, while scale correction will depend more from the dynamics of commodity asset. - The last week for a barrel of oil was marked by a steep downward dive, following which, the value of "black gold" plummeted from $ 82 to $ 75.4 per barrel. Despite the fact that the increased volatility has always been one of the distinguishing features of the dynamics of oil quotations, which occurred a fall, on the scale commensurate with the reduction of quotations, held in late June, and the current level is minimal for the last month. Relatively recent local maxima, oil prices have traded at a discount of 8.6%, and if the next support level is located at around $ 75 a barrel would not be able to provide substantial resistance to "bear", but this scenario seems that "REAL Invest.kz" quite likely, the level of discount will only increase, given that the next important support level is at only $ 70 per barrel. - gold prices, although noticeably slow down in the final session of the week, according to "REAL Invest.kz", have a good potential for growth, despite the five per cent appreciation of the last two weeks. Growing with every day concerns of market participants regarding the future prospects of the global economy will cause a sharp decline in investor risk appetite, which theoretically increases their eyes attractive asset, like gold. In favor of quotations of precious metal "will play a relatively close proximity of current prices from historic highs. In general, "REAL Invest.kz" evaluates the likelihood of increased ounces of gold in the short term as moderately high, while in case of a penetration and a maximum level, the establishment of a new peak at around $ 1,300 - will be a matter of time. - The return to the agenda the question of the unacceptably high level of budgetary arrears of some countries of the European region, according to "REAL Invest.kz", may be the reason that short-term correction, swept the two major currency pairs are EUR/USD and GBP/USD, may grow a full-fledged downtrend. As a result of last week, the euro against the U.S. dollar lost about 4%, while the traditionally more volatile British pound declined by only 2.5%. Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" believe, continued moderate downward course of the two currency pairs, at least in the short term, with the decline of the euro will be more pronounced in comparison with the British pound. Analysts JSC "Finance Company" REAL Invest.kz" also notes the following major developments in the Kazakh market: - In the framework maps industrialization of Kazakhstan plans to implement projects worth $ 43 billion Of this amount, the share of the Fund Samruk - Kazyna has $ 22 billion, according to the press office of the Fund. In this case, Samruk - Kazyna occupies the major share in the financing of investment projects in such industries as oil refining (86%), metallurgy (69%), energy (93%), chemicals and pharmaceuticals (84%), textiles (98 %), as well as the larger share in industries such as construction industry (52%) and engineering (35%). In the map the country's industrialization entered 53 projects, 35 of which are projects of national importance, 18 - regional projects. - In July 2010, the number of participating enterprises monitor, representing the main sectors of the economy of the country, increased from 2022 to 2078, including medium and large - from 1223 to 1237. It is reported by the press office of the National Bank of Kazakhstan. Results of quarterly surveys of enterprises leads to the following conclusions about the economic situation and major trends in the real economy in the 2 quarter of 2010. For the first time since 4 quarter 2008 was an increase in demand for finished products businesses as a whole on the economy. - In January-June 2010 volume of construction works amounted to KZT677 billion in current prices. This is 4% lower than in the corresponding period of 2009. Actually construction fell by almost 10%. Industry keeps on orders for major repairs (an increase of 67%) and maintenance (an increase of 55%). Orders are basically - the state associated with the implementation of projects "road map" (repair of roads and social facilities, reconstruction of housing and communal services). Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" noted that the most attractive stories among the shares of Kazakh companies are RD Kazmunaigas, Kazakhtelecom and Halyk Bank. Especially attractive look and EP Kazakhtelecom, as both companies are very strong balance sheet with low debt burden, the EP's net debt at all negative, ie cash flows of the company exceed liabilities. Besides their business generates more free cash flow, which allows them to pay a very solid dividends. Dividend income on preferred shares of KMG and Kazakhtelecom is 6-8% and 3- 4% of ordinary shares. Shares of these companies are traded much cheaper than the shares of similar companies in other emerging markets. This material is for informational purposes and is not an offer or recommendation to perform any transaction in securities. Agency IRBIS is not responsible for the opinions expressed in this material. [2010-08-16]