Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for June 30, 2010

/IRBIS, June 30, 2010/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for June 30, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Yesterday's trading in Europe and the USA have shown that investors' concerns about slowing global economy strengthened against the flow of negative signals from the economies of the United States, Japan and China. American S&P500 index within the day yesterday updated the minima of this year, dropping to 1,035.2 mark points, increasing the risk of further collapse. The previous intraday minimum index was recorded in May at 1 040.8 points. According to analysts of BTA Securities and Prospects "bear market" at the moment is questionable. First, the index is "broad market" has reached a fairly strong levels of support; Secondly, it is not said its last word statistics of China's PMI Manufacturing and U.S. employment for the month of June which goes on Thursday and Friday respectively. The focus of investors is still focused on economic statistics, and yesterday's drop proof. It should also be noted that the market from early June begins to recover correlation with the euro/dollar rate, which is partly an indicator of economic sentiment. In this regard, any positive economies of major countries can be very positively received by the market. Today, some guidance on the situation on the labor market statistics will give the U.S. ADP Employment Change, where employment growth is expected at about the previous month. Another significant event will be the figures of the Chicago purchasing management for business activity. Germany is today the statistics show the change in the number of unemployed people in the country. Bidding will begin today with a clean slate. - uncertainty, established in world stock markets in anticipation of the publication of important statistics on the labor market and the U.S. industrial sector in China, combined with minimized up to the previous day premium quotations local companies to foreign determine the probability of lateral dynamics of the Kazakhstan market. For some instruments, where there remains a serious arbitration, may be further selling. Analysts of BTA Securities expect falling stock quotations Kazkommertsbank, which cost 16% more expensive depository receipts. - According to analysts of BTA Securities, in addition to the negative fundamental factors that slithered down prices, the oil market has occurred and technical correction after rising to a two- month maximum. Quotes sunk to the level of support at 75 dollars per barrel, which already hold firmly to the past few weeks. Today, out data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products in the U.S., according to the expectations of stocks should fall on the background of the peak summer driving season. If acquitted, the forecast, the oil will get strong support. - Metal Market at this time is in anticipation of emerging this week's vital statistics for the U.S. and China, to finally lose faith or believe in the sustainability of the restoration of the world economy. From this block are now expected to statistics on the labor market situation of ADP and the Chicago purchasing managers index. Output data better forecasts should help rehabilitate quotes. - today Euro and British pound after yesterday's fall against the dollar will likely be strengthened in the Asian and, in part, the European session. During trading in Europe, the dynamics of the course will be determined by the data of Germany, unemployment and inflation in the euro area. In the American session traffic rate will be dominated by U.S. data on employment from the agency ADP and business activity from the Chicago Office of Purchasing. The dynamics of European currencies is influenced by the economic sentiment, if not improve, analysts of BTA Securities believe that you can see consolidation. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price 2010 year mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 5.0 9.8 Buy +96 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 430.1 728.3 Buy +69 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 240.0 388.5 Buy +62 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.1 9.7 Buy +29 HALYK BANK KASE 300.0 348.1 Buy +26 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 174.0 Hold +12 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 171.0 174.0 Hold +10 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 560.0 1,531.0 Buy +173 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 19.1 30.1 Buy +58 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 17,000.0 27,108.0 Buy +59 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.64 2.54 Buy +297 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,032.0 1,427.0 Buy +38 ENRC LSE 893.5 1,216.0 Buy +26 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 5.8 7.0 Buy +21 URANIUM ONE LSE 2.6 3.3 Buy +27 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 14,350.0 22,490.0 Buy +57 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 57.0 120.9 Buy +112 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-06-30]