Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for June 25, 2010
25.06.10 17:31
/IRBIS, June 25, 2010/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey
of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for June 25, 2010.
Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" are awaiting the fall of quotations rally at the
opening of trading on KASE and further mixed dynamics in the market. The
reason for pessimism become yesterday's fall in London, shares and
depositary receipts of Kazakh issuers and closing of positions before
weekend.
JSC BCC Invest also note the following important events in
Kazakhstan's market:
- June 29, 2010 in the trade system of KASE held special auctions on
placement of government long-term treasury bills of the Ministry of
Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan MEUZHKAM-228 issue with
maturity of 19 years (6,840 days). Estimated volume of
accommodation - KZT13 billion. The subject of bargaining will be the
value of fixed coupon as a percentage per annum of the nominal value
of the bond, expressed to second decimal place. Indexation of money
invested in MEUZHKAM, made by calculation of the indexed coupon
received from the addition of a fixed coupon at a specific location, and
the inflation index over the last coupon period. MEUZHKAM are
government bonds, accommodation which is among the pension funds
of the Republic of Kazakhstan. During the half term treatment
MEUZHKAM may apply only within that category of investors. More
bonds are freely traded on the market.
- June 24 Fitch Ratings affirmed the long-term Issuer Default ratings
(IDRs) of JSC National Company KazMunayGas in national and
foreign currencies at the level of "BBB-" and "BBB" respectively. Fitch
has also affirmed the senior unsecured debt rating of JSC National
Company KazMunayGas at BBB- and short-term foreign currency IDR
at F3. The outlook on the ratings - "Stable". In accordance with the
methodology used by Fitch Ratings regard parent and subsidiary
ratings of JSC National Company KazMunayGas are on a par with the
ratings of Kazakhstan ("BBB-" / "Stable") due to strong legal, strategic
and operational links with the parent organization of the group (
ultimately the state). This view supports the importance of oil and gas
sector of Kazakhstan's economy and the company's status as a body
representing the interests of the state of the industry, largely benefiting
from a favorable environment and to support the state in negotiations
with respect to ownership of projects and funding structures.
Nevertheless, Fitch notes that the current financial and operational
profile of JSC National Company KazMunayGas weaker profile of
competitors has a rating at "BBB-". According to analysts AO "BCC
Invest", this news is neutral for the stock price and depository receipts
of the subsidiary of JSC National Company KazMunayGas - JSC
Exploration Production KazMunaiGas as meet the expectations of the
market in light of the forthcoming initial public offering of parent
company. JSC "BCC Invest" reiterates the recommendation of "hold"
on the shares and depositary receipts JSC Exploration Production
KazMunaiGas with target price KZT21,300 per share and $24.50 per
GDR.
Analysts JSC BCC Invest also expect the following developments in
international markets:
- in the Russian market last trading day of the week will be very poor
boy in terms of macroeconomic publications. The only important data
that will be available during the day will be the state of the monetary
base in narrow definition of the ruble. In addition, the corporate sector
will be a meeting of shareholders of Gazprom. At the opening of
trading analytics of JSC "BCC Invest" expects the negative market
sentiment under pressure from adverse external background from
Asia. Furthermore, the negative stock market shut himself in the U.S.
on the eve also likely will not contribute to purchases.
- European markets will be published price index for Germany's
imports in May. Last modified indicator - increase by 2%. Experts
expect an increase in this indicator on 0.1%.
- U.S. market will be published GDP for the first quarter, as well as
consumer sentiment index released University of Michigan in June.
Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for
investors in securities of issuers in internal market:
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Issuer Last price Target Predicted price,
code price % Recom-
mendation
----------------- ------- ---------- ------ ---------------- ---------
Kazkommertsbank KKGB 420 479 +14.05 Neutral
KKGBp 240 335 +39.58 Buy
Halyk Bank HSBK 303 366 +27.39 Buy
Bank CenterCredit CCBN 559 734 +31.31 Buy
Tsesnabank TSBN 941 737 -21.68 Cut
KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 17,300 21,300 +23.12 Hold
Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 2,599.99 3,559 +36.89 Buy
ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,225 2,638 +18.56 Buy
Kazakhtelekom KZTK 14,500 19,200 +32.41 Buy
KZTKp 6,600 10,300 +56.06 Buy
MREK MREK 1,000 1,130 +13.00 Hold
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The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer
or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't
take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material.
[2010-06-25]