Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for June 17, 2010

/IRBIS, June 17, 2010/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for June 17, 2010. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" today expects a negative opening trades at KASE on the background of falling value of the GDR Kazakhstan issuers in London yesterday. Then, according to forecasts of JSC "BCC Invest", will be observed dynamics of mixed traffic quotations on KASE, and index KASE, will finish the day in neutral territory. JSC BCC Invest also note the following important events in Kazakhstan's market: - June 16, 2010 in the trade system of KASE a specialized auction on placement of short-term treasury bills of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan MEKKAM-12 issue of 108. The volume of placement was 73,333,333 of bonds in the amount of KZT7,189,541,300.65 (56.4% of the plan), the price of accommodation - 98.0392, yield to maturity - 2.00% APR. In total active bids on pension market entities have to 8.8%, the share of Kazakhstan's second-tier banks (BWI) - 50.5%, customers BWI - 40.1%, broker and dealer companies - 0.4%, their customers - 0.2%. According to data of the Central Securities Depository all deals on accommodation MEKKAM-12 issue 108 by the end of calculations based on trades executed. 30,3% of the total volume of placed bonds purchased by entities pension market, 3.0% - BWI, 63.9% - clients of BWI, 2.7% - broker-dealer companies. - June 16, the company Dragon Oil PLC have announced that has been signed a new contract for transportation of oil via Baku, Azerbaijan. Since the signing of the Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) on the field Cheleken Dragon Oil most of its oil exported under the oil swap with her daughter Iranian National Oil Company NaftIran Company Limited LTD (NICO), a so-called "southern route". The specified swap agreement was valid until March 31, 2010 and Dragon Oil has been signed a short-term swap contract with NICO till July 2010. Signing of the new swap agreement will depend on the outcome of negotiations between Dragon Oil and NICO. Dragon Oil signed a contract with Socar Trading SA for the supply of oil on FOB terminal Aladja through Baku, Azerbaijan on the so-called "western ways". Socar Trading, which is a trading division of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic, will be supplied to export oil through the pipeline "Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Dragon Oil in the past had a successful experience of cooperation with Socar Trading. Dragon Oil is planning to export a significant portion of its oil through the western route in the next 12 months. According to expectations the company net sales price of oil will be slightly lower than the historically formed along the southern route. In 2010 the company expects the average selling price discount to the price of BRENT crude was at the level of $6 - $8 per barrel. Discount in the future will depend on the outcome of negotiations between Dragon Oil and NICO for the swap agreement and Dragon Oil and Socar Trading under the contract, as well as the availability of alternatives. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" indicate that the market reacted positively to the message that it has signed a contract with Dragon Oil Socar Trading - shares in London yesterday soared nearly 7% from 411.75 to 440.25 pence per share. The only downside is the increase in the discount net selling price to the benchmark, but it was already included in the expectations of the market. JSC "BCC Invest" reiterates the recommendation to "buy" on shares of Dragon Oil PLC with a target price of 600 pence per share. Analysts JSC BCC Invest also expect the following developments in international markets: - Russian market is expected to continue technical correction, however, according to JSC "BCC Invest", it would not be deep and indexes will retain significant levels of uptrend support. - European markets today better to pay attention to the publication of a monthly report of the European Central Bank, as well as data on the volume of production in the construction sector in the Euro zone. - U.S. market special attention of investors, in addition to data on the number of weekly requests for unemployment benefits, will be published in the indices of inflation, balance of payments, business activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the index of leading indicators. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market: ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Target Predicted price, code price % Recom- mendation ----------------- ------- ---------- ------ ---------------- --------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 440 479 +8.86 Neutral KKGBp 240 335 +39.58 Buy Halyk Bank HSBK 295 366 +30.85 Buy Bank CenterCredit CCBN 555 734 +32.25 Buy Tsesnabank TSBN 941 737 -21.68 Cut KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 18,501 21,300 +15.13 Hold Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 2,500 3,559 +42.36 Buy ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,280 2,638 +15.70 Buy Kazakhtelekom KZTK 13,000 19,200 +47.69 Buy KZTKp 6,201 10,300 +66.10 Buy MREK MREK 1,000 1,130 +13.00 Hold ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-06-17]