High oil prices will contribute to the level of 140-145 m. before the end of the year - BTA Securities JSC (Kazakhstan)

/IRBIS, April 28, 2010/ - Growth in industrial output and GDP in Kazakhstan in the first quarter of 2010 are encouraging, stated in a monthly survey released today Subsidiary of JSC BTA Bank BTA Securities JSC (BTA Securities, Almaty) on economy of the republic. As indicated by preliminary data for the first quarter of 2010 real GDP growth in Kazakhstan was at the level of 6.6%. Short-term economic indicator in March rose by 10.5% to the corresponding period of 2009. In March 2010, inflation amounted to 0.7% in March. Analysts expect further price increases are not a food cart in the following months. "Kazakhstan's accession to the Customs Union will import inflation from Russia and Belarus, where inflation has always been high. Also, have increased prices for Chinese goods. Increase the duties on confectionery at 50%. In addition, rising prices for fuel will sit down on production costs. Lower crop prices, respectively, of food, can not reverse the rise in prices for food products is not, "- stated in the review. In March, unemployment fell to 6.1%, and since the "credit BWI economy remains at a low level, so we do not see a reason for a greater reduction in unemployment in the coming months." Investment in fixed assets in the first quarter of 2010 amounted to KZT621.817 billion. However, borrowed funds decreased from 8.9% to 6.3%, reflecting, analysts say BTA Securities, as the difficulty of obtaining loans from banks,and a slight increase in lending BWI economy. The most attractive industries for investments is still mining and quarrying, whose share in total investments amounted to 56.1%. Trade: Foreign trade turnover amounted to $11.626 billion in January-February 2010 (compared with the corresponding period in 2009 increased by 27.6%), including exports - $8.495 billion (66.2% increase) and import - $3.131 billion (by 18.7% less). As noted by BTA Securities analysts, noted a decrease in imports to maintain a weak public demand for non - food products. Rate of KazPrime is at 1.76% level which reflects to the relatively favorable situation in the banking sector, that has accumulated a significant amount of liquidity. "A new asymmetric corridor to the dollar of tenge is in the range 127.5-165, was asked by Mr. G. Marchenko on November 11, 2010. Since that date, we see the tenge at 146.54. We believe that high oil prices will contribute to tenge, up to the level of 140-145 by the end of the year. The world dynamics on strengthen the U.S. dollar will have no significant impact on the tenge exchange rate ", - it's stated in the report. [2010-04-28]