Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for April 19, 2010

/IRBIS, April 19, 2010/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for April 19, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today bidding in Europe and in U.S.A. is likely to take place under the pressure of negative news from Goldman Sachs, who is accused of fraud in derivative mortgage securities. According to recent reports, the bank also may be subject to a similar investigation by the regulators of Great Britain and Germany. The negative is for the market and the news that Chinese regulators have adopted additional measures to cool the property market of the country, prohibiting banks to lend to buy housing in those regions where there are signs of price overheating. Commodity markets reacted negatively to the news. Copper prices in Shanghai fell by more than 2.7% and the "black gold" declines in value by more than 1.5% in the U.S.A. Some adjustments to the dynamics of the market today can make a record of Citigroup, IBM, Hulliburton, as well as statistics of the U.S. economy on an index of leading indicators (Leading indicators), which is expected to grow in March at 1%. BTA Securities Analysts believes that the negative will still prevail, the risks of further reducing the stock market speak and technical signals. - On Friday the Kazakh stock market failed to gain a foothold on the psychologically important level of 1,900 points. Since the beginning of the year is the third attempt. Today, BTA Securities analysts believe in reasons for continuing correction. Market metals and oil will put pressure on local quotes. Maybe on Monday we can expect technical buying shares of the banking sector. In general, analysts BTA Securities expect that the vast majority of players would refrain from bidding. - A change of futures in New York, the spread between the two contracts Lights Sweet and Brent almost fell, with what disappeared some volatility in the market. Today, there is no important events are expected, and perhaps the oil market will continue the "bear" trend, which associated with negative news on Goldman Sachs. - Concerns that the SEC in its investigations will not be limited only by one Goldman can expect multiple lawsuits from the victims holders of those derivatives will be a few more days dominates the markets. Frugal macro static background today also fails to count on the return of positive sentiment. As the result, today will continue the correction of quotations of metals and stocks of steel companies'. - April 19 is expected to strengthen the dollar against the positives of the U.S. Leading Indicators (expected to increase from 0.1% to 1%). Today, scheduled a joint meeting of representatives of the ECB, IMF and Greece about the financial assistance of the latter. The results of their work will have a major impact on the euro. The British pound will weaken, showing correlation with the euro. Analysts of "BTA Securities" give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price 2010 year mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 8.6 5.5 Sell -36 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 642.0 410.0 Sell -36 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 260.0 205.0 Sell -21 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 10.2 7.9 Sell -22 HALYK BANK KASE 370.0 295.0 Sell -20 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 147.0 Hold -13 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 171.0 191.0 Hold +12 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 715.0 618.0 Hold -14 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 25.2 30.1 Buy +20 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 22,450.0 27,108.0 Buy +21 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.01 2.54 Buy +151 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,498.0 1,324.0 Hold -12 ENRC LSE 1,206.0 1,059.0 Hold -12 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.4 7.0 Sell -16 URANIUM ONE LSE 2.7 2.0 Sell -24 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 16,710.0 22,490.0 Buy +35 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 70.0 120.9 Buy +73 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-04-19]