Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for April 14, 2010

/IRBIS, April 14, 2010/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for April 14, 2010. Analysts of JSC BCC Invest expected today on the Kazakhstan stock market after yesterday's correction, rehabilitation on the background of the positive closing in the U.S. and growth in Asian markets. JSC BCC Invest also noted the following important events in Kazakhstan's market: - In January - March 2010 volume of industrial production in Kazakhstan increased by 11.5%. In January-March 2010 compared with the same period in 2009 increased production of crude oil, natural gas, iron ore, coal and lignite, has increased production of construction materials, food, and refining, chemical, metallurgy and machine building. The increase in production was observed in all regions of the republic. - The unemployment rate in Kazakhstan in March amounted to 6.1%. The economy of the republic in March 2010 (estimated) was employed 8.1 million people. With regard to the same period last year their number increased by 303.0 thousand persons or 3.9%. Number of employees in that period amounted to 5.4 million (66.6% of total employment). The number of unemployed in the month of March was estimated at 524.3 thousand people, the unemployment rate - 6.1%. Officially registered by the end of March in the employment services of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan - 76.4 thousand people. The proportion of registered unemployed amounted to 0.9% of the economically active population (in March 2009 - 0.8%). It is estimated that in March 2010 level of hidden unemployment reached 0.6% of the economically active population. - Growth of GDP in Kazakhstan in the first quarter of this year compared with January-March 2009 is projected at 6-7%, noted Mr. Alikhan Smailov the head of the State Agency for Statistics. "The volume of GDP in the quarter I will probably be between 6% and 7%," - he said at a press briefing on Tuesday in Astana. According to him, the precise calculations of the GDP in January-March will be ready in May. According to the latest projections of the Government of Kazakhstan, the republic's GDP growth this year will be 2%. Kazakhstan's GDP in 2009 have rose by 1.2%. - April 13 became known immediately about the two upcoming transactions Polyus Gold ", confirming that the market was waiting for several months. First, the company really plans reverse takeover of its Kazakh "daughter" KazakhGold, which will give the combined company listing in London. Secondly, the "Pole" returned to the idea of a secondary placing on the market and is considering selling its treasury shares on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong to finance the development of Natalka deposit. JSC "BCC Invest" believes that the message is positive for the stock price and the GDR companies Polyus Gold and KazakhGold, because, as noted earlier, the combined company will be able to join the FTSE 100, which will allow Russian companies to enter the external capital markets. In addition, raising funds for the development of "Natalka" is one of the largest deposits in the world of the gold content, can also positively affect the company's capitalization and, consequently, contribute to the growth of quotations of its shares. When calculating the earnings and the fair value of the company analysts JSC "BCC Invest" take into account the production and income from Natalka, therefore, despite the positive effect, according to JSC "BCC Invest", the GDR OJSC Polyus Gold is currently slightly overvalued. The current recommendation of JSC "BCC Invest" is located at the "sell", but analysts JSC "BCC Invest" revise its forecast, when they know the exact details of the transaction with a reverse takeover by KazakhGold and listing in Hong Kong. Analysts JSC BCC Invest also expect the following developments in international markets: - On Russian market is expected to yield data on the growth of industrial output in March, as well as the consumer price index for the week. Among corporate news is worth mentioning the publication of financial results for the year 2009 according to IFRS Raspadskaya, as well as press conference on the results of VTB 24 in the first quarter of 2010, which will hold the president of the bank. At the opening of today's trading is expected neutral-positive dynamics of the market against a background of multi-directional movement of the Asian indices, as well as moderately positive growth of futures for U.S. indices. Nevertheless, is not excluded and a slight decrease on the background of the negative dynamics of hotel's Asian markets. - On the European markets will be the main economic event of the publication of data on the growth of industrial production in February, the euro area, which is expected to reach 0.1%-increasing relative to the previous month. - On the U.S. markets is expected to yield data for increasing sales growth in March, and inflation over the same period. Commodity market may fluctuate in accordance with the weekly supply of oil and petroleum products, which will publish the U.S. Department of Energy. Also today, will be the speech of the Fed on the economic committee, for which investors will be closely monitored. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market: ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Target Predicted price, code price % Recom- mendation ----------------- ------- ---------- ------ ---------------- --------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 615 695 +12.93 Hold KKGBp 260 347 +33.58 Hold Halyk Bank HSBK 367 330 -10.08 Sell Bank CenterCredit CCBN 707 777 +9.90 Hold Tsesnabank TSBN 940 737 -21.60 Cut KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 22,300 20,300 -8.97 Hold Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 3,400 3,559 +4.68 Neutral ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,710 2,642 -2.51 Hold Kazakhtelekom KZTK 16,850 17,800 +5.64 Hold KZTKp 7,800 10,300 +32.05 Buy MREK MREK 910 800 -12.09 Cut ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-04-14]