Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for March 29, 2010

/IRBIS, March 29, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for March 29, 2010. Analysts now paying attention to the following investors' significant events - Central Bank of Russia reduced rates. On March 29, 2010, ie today, Bank of Russia reduced its refinancing rate by 25 basis points - from 8.5% to 8.25% per annum. Simultaneously, the CBR has reduced to 0.25 basis points in interest rates on a number of instruments to provide liquidity in the banking sector and the deposits attracted from credit institutions. As noted in the message CBR conditions for further interest rate cuts the Bank of Russia provides continued with the slowdown in consumer prices (as of March 22, annual inflation was 6.9% compared to 7.2% in February) and the absence in the current year prerequisites for a substantial acceleration of inflation. Despite some positive changes in the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, the economic recovery is not sustainable. Analysts of IFD "RESMI" believe that decline in inflation in Russia will affect the level of inflation in Kazakhstan, which since the beginning of this year exceeded 7%. Given that the inflation rate in Kazakhstan is affected by inflation in countries that are trade partners of Kazakhstan, we can expect a slowdown in Kazakhstan inflation. However, analysts IFD "RESMI" note that the last few months, a negative correlation between the dynamics of inflation between the two countries. Analysts IFD "RESMI" believe that inflationary pressures in Kazakhstan caused by internal factors, such as infusion of public funds into the economy and the beginning of implementation of the Programme of accelerated industrial and innovation development. Additionally, lower interest rates the Bank of Russia will limit the incentives for short-term capital and, possibly, in the short term will lead to a slight weakening of the ruble. - Gazprom buys assets Total. The Russian gas giant Gazprom wants to make an offer to purchase the assets of Total, which include 800 filling stations and oil refineries Lindsey (Lindsey). These assets are estimated at about 1 billion pounds, and also include a portion of the pipeline length of 247 kilometers from the refinery to storage tanks in Bankefild that serve the south-east England and Heathrow Airport. The deal will be offered through the oil subsidiary of Gazprom - Gazprom Neft. Also participating in the auction Essar Group, and Valero Energy Corp. This is the third transaction for the sale of oil assets in the UK. Chevron put on sale of similar businesses in Wales, for 1.3 billion pounds, while Royal Dutch Shell is in talks to sell its refinery in Cheshire (UK), with Indian conglomerate Essar Group. Because of the financial crisis, many oil giants have already revised their strategy in the oil market, deciding to concentrate on mining and exploration for oil, selling such "non-core" assets, like gas stations and refineries. - IGC issued a review of the grain market. International Grains Council (IGC) issued a regular review of the grain market. According to the report, forecast production of grain in the world for 2009/2010 was increased by 0.11% to 1,774 million tons to 1,776 million tons. Improved prognosis due to revaluation of the corn crop. In general, the tendency to overproduction of grain. The decline in exports and an increase in ending stocks of grain will have a negative impact on prices. IGC forecast for wheat production remained stable and amounted to 675 million tons. In view of increasing demand from ethanol producers and starch, the forecast consumption of wheat increased by 1 million tons to 644 million tons. Also increased the forecast of world wheat trade in the 2009/2010 year due to the volume of shipments to Asia. Given favorable weather forecasts increased corn production in Argentina and South Africa. Also expected to increase demand for corn due to increased use of corn in ethanol production and starch. Reduced exports of maize from the United States has influenced the increase in projected reserves, and reducing imports of maize from Mexico and Saudi Arabia will have a negative impact on trade volumes. Overall, in 2010, is expected another large crop of grain. This year there is a tendency to increase the acreage of corn and a simultaneous reduction of crops of wheat and barley. In the 2010/2011 marketing year, taking into account the increased initial inventory, IGC forecasts an increase of the world's total reserves of grain up to 2158 million tons. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI, Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ------ Kazkommertsbak 671 796 18.6% 1,261 58.72 Halyk bank 384.99 409 6.2% 1,006 56.72 Bank Center Credit 746 1,218 63.3% 989 51.48 ENRC 2,456 On review 2,793 53.36 Kazakhmys 3,230 On review 3,520 50.99 RD KMG 21,670 24,895 14.9% 25,731 Kazkhtelekom 16,851 33,842 100.8% n/a 37.19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0%. - Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; - Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's shares up to KZT409 per share; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to the level of KZT1,230 m.; - Stocks Kazakhtelecom look most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. - JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas actively consolidating oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan through the purchase of oil assets. Exporting around 80% of its oil. Provisions of the company amounts to 5% of the total volume of proven oil reserves in Kazakhstan. The updated target price is KZT24,895 per share. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-03-29]