Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for March 18, 2010

/IRBIS, March 18, 2010/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for March 18, 2010. - Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" now awaiting the opening of the Kazakhstan stock market continue to grow against the backdrop of universal optimism. However, in the second half of the day may start profit-taking by investors in anticipation of the long weekend. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" continues to recommend investors to gradually reduce positions in the stocks, especially given the upcoming holidays next week, when the local market will be closed. Due to the fact that the stock quotes and depository receipts Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan "significantly exceeded target prices, analysts JSC" BCC Invest "lower recommendations on them to" hold "to" sell ", while leaving the target price on the same level - 335 per share and $ 9.04 per GDR. - JSC "BCC Invest" also notes the following important events in the Kazakh market: - March 17, 2010 in the trade system of KASE held specialized auction on placement of government long-term treasury obligations of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan MEOKAM-36 79 release. The volume of placement amounted to KZT15 billion, which corresponded to the plan, the coupon rate was 3.6% per annum. - OPEC for the fifth time has decided to maintain quotas on oil production at 24.845 million barrels a day, according to organization's secretary general Abdalla El-Badri, at a press conference after a meeting in Vienna. The next meeting of OPEC in Vienna in October this year. Over the last week, OPEC ministers in one voice declared that the current oil price was about $ 80 a barrel they are satisfied, therefore, makes no sense to reduce or increase production. - To settle a trade dispute in the production branch "Ozenmunaygaz" JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas a committee with representatives from all sides. As the press service of Mayor of Mangistau region, resulting in meeting the heads of "KMG" Kairgeldy Kabyldin with participants of the unauthorized protest last agreed to elect their representatives to participate in the work created by a conciliation commission. The commission will also include representatives of the company - the employer and as a third party - the representatives of local executive authorities and law enforcement. As a result, from each side to 12 men identified as members of a conciliation commission. Director of Production branch Ozenmunaygaz, JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas Bagitkali Biseken resigned. According to analysts JSC "BCC Invest", the message data can positively influence the dynamics of stock price and depository receipts JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas, as evidence of the mutual desire of the parties to the prompt settlement of labor disputes. Analysts AO "BCC Invest" confirm the recommendation to "hold" on the shares and GDRs of the company with the target price, respectively, KZT20,300 per share and $ 23.30 per GDR. - Swedish telecom Tele2 Holding has completed the acquisition of 51% of the "Mobile Telecom-Service" provider of cellular services in Kazakhstan under the brand name Neo. For controlling stake in "Mobile Telecom-Service" Tele2 paid in cash 545 million kroner ($ 77 million), as well as additional will invest 360 million kroner ($ 50.9 million) to increase the authorized capital. According to analysts JSC "BCC Invest", the message is neutral for the stock price of Kazakhtelecom, as corresponds to the earlier statement and market expectations. Analysts JSC "BCC Invest" confirm the recommendation to "hold" on common shares KZTK with a target price of KZT17,800 per share and "buy" on preferred shares KZTKp with a target price of KZT10,300 per share. - March 17, it has ZhaikMunai LP issued a press release about the production results for the 4 quarter of 2009. Crude oil production amounted to 695,712 barrels (7,559 barrels a day), which is 53% more than in the corresponding period last year. Proceeds from sale of oil were $ 36.7 million, almost 3 times more than a year earlier, due to higher volumes and sales prices. Preliminary financial results for 2009 will be published on 31 marta2010 year. According to JSC "BCC Invest", published in the general production and operating results of the company are positive and the communication can positively affect the quotes GDR ZhaikMunai LP. Analysts JSC "BCC Invest" will make adjustments to the valuation model GDR ZhaikMunaiLP and update the recommendations and price targets after the publication of preliminary financial results for the year 2009. At present, JSC "BCC Invest" reiterates the recommendation to "hold" on depositary receipts ZhaikMunai LP with a target price of $ 8.70 per GDR. - KazakhGold updated the board of directors. The board of directors KazakhGold, 50.1% owned by Russia's Polyus Gold, there have been rearrangements: now there is one independent director instead of two, and was replaced by one representative of the" poles ". New representative of the "poles" in the council on March 17 was Alexei Teksler head of Kazakhstan's business units "Pole" and CEO "daughters" KazakhGold-Kazakhantyn MMC. According to analysts JSC "BCC Invest", a story is moderately positive for quotations GDR KazakhGold, since the appointment of a new chairman of the board of directors of the organization should have a positive effect on the efficiency of company management. Analysts JSC "BCC Invest" is not considered securities KazakhGold separately from the parent company, because the organization failed to submit financial statements and results of operations for the year 2009. Despite the potential positive impact on the company's stock, a premium to the analogs of the coefficients of "price / earnings and EV/EBITDA, as well as high capital costs significantly affect the level of free cash flow, which gives a poorer value of the company when they are discounting. JSC "BCC Invest" reiterates the recommendation to "sell" on the ADR JSC Polyus Gold. - Kazakhmys in 2010, plans to increase gold production by 26%. "Our production plans for 2010 are as follows: we will support production of 300 thousand tons of copper, 130 thousand tons of zinc concentrate and 170 thousand ounces of gold and 13 million ounces of silver," - said CEO of Kazakhmys Mr. Oleg Novachuk, speaking on International Forum on Sustainable Development and the efficiency of the mining business in Central Asia in Astana. These messages correspond to the expectations of JSC "BCC Invest" on the production value of the company, so the news will be neutral for the stock quote Kazakhmys PLC, traded on the stock markets of Kazakhstan and the UK. JSC "BCC Invest" reiterates the recommendation to "hold" on shares of the company with target prices of 3,528 m. and 1,544 pence. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" are also waiting for the next events in the international markets: - on Russian markets today are data on the status of international reserves in U.S. dollars at the end of last week. Most likely, this economic statistics will be neutral for the stock exchanges in Russia, but it is likely impact on the course of Russia's ruble on currency markets. At the opening of the trading day on Thursday is not expected to significantly change the market in the early hours of trading due to multi- directional movement on Asian stock markets and futures on major U.S. indexes. - European markets today, will be published data on the current account balance of payments and the value of the euro zone trade balance for January, which may affect the exchange rate between the euro and other currencies. Also today, there are data of public financing of Great Britain, which, if exceeded projections, may reflect deteriorating fiscal conditions of the Government. - on the U.S. markets today, the main economic event will yield data on the consumer price index February. Because the risk of inflation at the moment are not so strong, so most likely, the data on CPI will be at minimal levels, and then investors will turn their attention to data on initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week. In the event of discrepancies between the data weekly unemployment projections, the market may respond significantly in either direction. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Issuer Last price Target Predicted price, code price % Recom- mendation ----------------- ------- ---------- ------ ---------------- ----------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 660 695 +5.23 Hold KKGBp 269.5 347 +28.87 Hold Halyk Bank HSBK 395 335 -15.32 buy Bank CenterCredit CCBN 745 make review Tsesnabank TSBN 980 737 -24.80 cut KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 20,900 20,300 -2.87 Hold Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 3,400 3,528 +3.76 Hold ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,600 2,709 +4.19 Hold Kazakhtelekom KZTK 17,250 17,800 +3.19 Hold KZTKp 8,008 10,300 +28.62 buy ------------------------------------------------------------------------ The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-03-18]