Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for March 11, 2010

/IRBIS, March 11, 2010/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for March 11, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Thursday, trading in Europe and the U.S. are likely to end in negative zone with a moderate decrease. Pressure on the market will provide the Chinese factor. Resurgent market speculation yesterday on an early tightening of monetary policy against the background of China's rapid growth of exports and imports, current efforts. The reason for this will increase inflation in the country to 16 month high in February, as well as high growth of retail sales, industrial production and lending in the country. In February, consumer prices rose by 2.7%, exceeding economists' expectations of 0.2 percentage points. Pessimism today have been augmented and revised to decrease the rate of economic growth in Japan in 4 quarter of 2009 real GDP growth during this period amounted to 3.8%, instead of 4.6% originally published. It should be noted that the major indexes in Europe and the U.S., the price of oil and metals had reached annual highs. Today's news may be a major cause for rollback quotations down. The Asian indexes decrease quotations react after news. Oil prices fall, the U.S. dollar is growing. - Analysts of BTA Securities expect restrained dynamics of domestic market shares, trading volumes could grow. Most likely, a growing number of common shares will be the banking sector. Most of them will reduce the arbitration with the depository receipts, which have markedly soared in value in trading Wednesday. Curb the market will be an equity instrument commodity companies expected to reduce the price of oil and metals. - Quotations of depositary receipts of Kazakh banks yesterday showed unwarranted growth. In the absence of significant news for the sector, analysts said BTA Securities, the rise was related to technical factors. Perhaps some players have decided to purchase shares KazkommertsBank after achieving the medium-term price support level. Today may purchase shares of CMC and Halyk Bank on KASE after London. Common shares of the Bank of BCC may be cheaper for poor financial results for the year 2009. - Bulls now in the possession were two predictions that have been modified upward, and the argument that oil reserves are declining. However, the growth stock of crude oil has been going for five weeks in a row, which eventually may lead to a correction in the market. On the technical side, quotes settled near the strong levels of resistance. Brent barely overcomes the level of 80.5, dollars per barrel, and Light Sweet level of 82 dollars per barrel. However, even overcoming these levels does not guarantee strong growth, as viscous zone of resistance requires a more significant factor for the growth of quotations. Levels 82-83.5 dollars per barrel for Brent and Light Sweet seem almost inviolable. - Likelihood of further cuts in the stimulus package grows on published last night macroeconomic statistics on China. Inflation, industrial production and lending economy in February increased more rapidly than anticipated by economists. As a result, the background for base metals and steel companies for quotations today consists rather negative. - Thursday, March 11 is expected weakening of the dollar against the backdrop of the negative trade balance for the U.S. (expected to decrease from -40.2V to-41V). Inflation in China against the backdrop of increasing industrial production and retail sales will rise to speculation about a possible tightening of monetary policy in China. Therefore, analysts BTA Securities expect a moderate strengthening of the dollar in Asian and European sessions. British pound will strengthen as a technical. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 8.5 5.5 Sell -35 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 621.5 410.0 Sell -34 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 246.0 205.0 Sell -17 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 10.6 7.9 Sell -25 HALYK BANK KASE 388.0 295.0 Sell -24 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 173.4 147.0 Sell -15 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 171.0 191.0 Hold +12 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 719.0 618.0 Hold -14 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 23.4 30.1 Buy +29 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,005.0 27,108.0 Buy +29 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.06 2.54 Buy +140 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,545.0 1,324.0 Hold -14 ENRC LSE 1,140.0 1,059.0 Hold -7 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.7 7.0 Hold -8 URANIUM ONE LSE 2.8 2.0 Sell -27 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 17,016.0 22,490.0 Buy +32 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 63.5 120.9 Buy +90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-03-11]