Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for February 23, 2010

/IRBIS, February 23, 2010/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for February 23, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today in the morning trading in Europe, the dynamics of the main indexes in the region show a moderately negative dynamics. Investors continue to discreetly record profits on shares of commodity companies amid falling prices for oil and metals. Oil prices in the U.S. yesterday broke the mark of $ 80 per barrel. Given the unsatisfactory situation with the demand for oil, in anticipation of release of statistics API reserves the players, obviously, will record a profit. In morning trading crude oil is traded in negative zone. In the afternoon, the situation might change. All will depend on the statistical agency of the February Conference Board consumer confidence index value, an index of business activity in the Richmond District of the United States, as well as data on changes in property prices of S&P / Case&Shiller. Before the release of data forecasts of economists restrained. - Today in Kazakhstan's market, analysts of BTA Securities expect some weakening grip of "bulls". Commodity markets were closed on Monday, the technical decline, but they are determining the dynamics of the local market in recent times. It is reasonable to anticipate that the paper Kazakhmys, ENRC and KMG EP will be shut down in the negative zone. - In the banking sector, analysts BTA Securities does not expect today to see the changes for the better. Yesterday's purchase of shares cheapened CMC can be explained by the duration of individual market players who can change the background of further sales of unpromising dynamics in recent weeks. Absence of strong drivers of growth in recent months has identified a fairly long lateral dynamics of the quotations for the majority of instruments sector. The trend in the past few weeks, the negative dynamics of equity Kazkommertsbank and Bank CenterCredit probably indicates undermining investor confidence in the presence of their potential for further growth. Yesterday continued sale of common shares Halyk Bank. Over the past two days they have fallen in price by 3.6%. Analysts of BTA Securities still recommend "sell" equity instruments sector. - The market is likely to refrain from active buying in anticipation of release of data on commercial oil reserves. Also leaving today data on consumer sentiment Conference Board, which is expected to moderate decline, will not add a positive. Quotes KMG EP today, as expected BTA Securities, will be in a moderate negative. - Metal market today can be continued sales of at least the first half of the day on the expected overall negative data on consumer confidence index Conferene Board. Quotes of metals, as well as Kazakhstan metallurgists are expected BTA Securities, will show a moderate decline. - This may strengthen the euro and the pound on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will refrain from imminent collapse of anti-crisis measures against the backdrop of moderate inflation. Ben Bernanke, 24 and 25 February will present his semiannual report on the economy and interest rates, representatives of the U.S. Congress. The Fed chief is likely to be in favor of maintaining rates at current levels for another long period of time. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 8.2 5.5 Sell -33 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 630.0 410.0 Sell -35 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 245.0 205.0 Sell -16 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.7 7.9 Sell -18 HALYK BANK KASE 347.0 295.0 Hold -15 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 173.0 147.0 Sell -15 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 171.0 191.0 Hold +12 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 730.0 618.0 Sell -15 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.5 30.1 Buy +23 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,200.0 27,108.0 Buy +28 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.06 2.54 Buy +140 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,363.0 1,324.0 Hold -3 ENRC LSE 1,065.0 1,059.0 Hold -1 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.5 7.0 Hold -6 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.1 2.0 Sell -34 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 17,750.0 22,490.0 Buy +27 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.180 0.039 Sell -78 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 68.3 120.9 Buy +77 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-02-23]