Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for February 18, 2010

/IRBIS, February 18, 2010/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for February 18, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Trades in Europe and the United States today can go into the negative zone on speculation that U.S. Federal Reserve may soon raise its key interest rate after data on industrial production and real estate market beat economists' forecasts.The dollar, after yesterday's rise has a chance to further strengthen that clearly put pressure on the price quotations for raw materials. Not encouraging and fundamental data on the oil market. API expects to increase stocks of heating fuel and gasoline to the vulgar week. Support to the market today can provide optimistic forecasts Applied Matrials and Hewlett-Packard's net profit for the 2nd quarter and 2010, respectively, as well as the U.S. statistics for the primary applications for unemployment benefits, which is expected to diminish their numbers last week. Nevertheless, the market will feel the pressure of sales, especially shares of raw owners. Analysts of BTA Securities believe that the correction will be moderate. - Today the growth of Kazakhstan's stock market may be restrained expected correction in commodity markets and stock markets in Europe, despite the fact that yesterday the site of America, and Europe completed the day in the positive territory, aided by a favorable macro- picture. - Today, on the oil market likely will occur after the sale of the impressive growth in recent days. Expected on the positive macro- background of continued strengthening of the dollar and out of official statistics DOE oil reserves will provide additional justification for the reduction of positions in the oil. Global receipts KMG EP today, are also likely to return to the negative zone. - Today macro--statistics positive way, as analysts BTA Securities expect that will support quotes of metals. Market awaits positive data on the labor market and on the report of the Federal Bank of Philadelphia. However, the pressure of the dollar will be strong, so a moderately negative dynamics of quotations that had started on yesterday, may continue. Quotes of Kazakhmys and ENRC may also enter into a negative zone after a three-day ascent. - February 18, is expected to strengthen against the dollar on speculation about increasing the base rate and retirement incentives for the Fed, after statistics showed U.S. manufacturing growth and improving real estate market. The British pound will weaken against the background of monetary growth UK. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 8.2 5.5 Sell -33 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 610.0 410.0 Sell -33 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 245.0 205.0 Sell -16 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.6 7.9 Sell -18 HALYK BANK KASE 355.0 295.0 Sell -17 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 173.0 147.0 Sell -15 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 760.0 618.0 Sell -19 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 23.9 30.1 Buy +26 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,300.0 27,108.0 Buy +27 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.09 2.54 Buy +133 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,311.0 1,324.0 Hold +1 ENRC LSE 1,006.0 1,059.0 Hold +5 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.7 7.0 Hold -8 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.2 2.0 Sell -36 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 17,900.0 22,490.0 Buy +26 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.170 0.039 Sell -77 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 68.3 120.9 Buy +77 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-02-18]