Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for February 17, 2010

/IRBIS, February 17, 2010/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for February 17, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today, analysts of BTA Securities does not expect any major changes in the dynamics of the major indexes during trading in Europe and the United States. The two-day rally on stock markets and raw materials today can be completed moderate increases or decrease, depending on how today's events will be interpreted by the market. Decisive for investors today will be the U.S. data on industrial production and new construction in January. According to the forecasts of economists, both macro indicators rose last month, with a positive for the market. At the same time, good results can lead to the strengthening U.S. dollar, which, moreover, yesterday substantially weakened against the euro and pound. Given that the course yesterday, aroused strong rise in prices for oil and metals, the correction in commodity markets today is quite likely. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities do not exclude the possibility of strengthening of Kazakhstan's stock market. Tuesday GDR commodity companies have shown a good momentum day before. On their side were rising prices for metals and oil. It is expected that participants in the local auction will be formed to reduce the spread. In addition, in the morning to form a positive news background. - Today, investors are likely to be cautious with regard to purchases of contracts for oil after two day rally quotes. Moreover, today there are risks strengthening the U.S. dollar, after falling the previous day. Second, market participants are going to wait for today and tomorrow, data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products in the United States from API and DOE, respectively. The situation with fuel consumption in this country is not yet quite encouraging. - Anticipate a positive way to commence on the January statistics for residential construction projects and industrial production in the United States would maintain the positive momentum in the sector of industry, however, quotes will feel some pressure from a strengthening dollar. Quotes Kazakhmys and ENRC may continue to move in the positive zone. - Today, on the possible strengthening of the dollar against the positive on U.S. industrial production (expected to increase from 0.6% to 0.7%). The British pound has a chance to further strengthening in the event of a positive labor market data of Great Britain. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 8.4 5.5 Sell -34 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 640.0 410.0 Sell -36 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 255.0 205.0 Sell -20 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.4 7.9 Sell -16 HALYK BANK KASE 355.0 295.0 Sell -17 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 173.0 147.0 Sell -15 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 747.0 618.0 Sell -17 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 23.8 30.1 Buy +27 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,000.0 27,108.0 Buy +29 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.08 2.54 Buy +135 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,300.0 1,324.0 Hold +2 ENRC LSE 966.5 1,059.0 Hold +10 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.5 7.0 Hold -6 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.2 2.0 Sell -36 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,000.0 22,490.0 Buy +25 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.190 0.039 Sell -79 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 68.3 120.9 Buy +77 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-02-17]