Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for February 12, 2010

/IRBIS, February 12, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for February 12, 2010. Analysts now paying attention to the following investors' significant events - Analysts of IFD RESMI is now paying attention to the investors the following key developments on the market: yesterday met leaders of the European Union at the informal summit in Brussels. It was expected that participants in the summit will focus on solving economic problems and especially on the problems of Greece, the budget deficit which in 2009 reached 12.7% of GDP. For comparison, the budget deficit in Kazakhstan in 2009 amounted to 3.1% of GDP. - Currently, Greece is an obvious "weak link" in the euro area and its fiscal problems caused fears of a possible default of the country and exert strong pressure on the single European currency. Since the beginning of the European currency has lost about 5%. EU officials have repeatedly tried to reassure markets, saying that Greece is not threatened with default, but the tension around the financial situation of the country persists. Analysts of IFD "RESMI" believe that the informal nature of the meeting of Heads of State and Government did not intend to take serious action. However, financial market participants were expecting are more constructive solutions to issues concerning Greece and the euro against the backdrop of disappointment again "went down. - According to assumptions IFD "RESMI", the EU will not take decisive action against Greece, until clear signs of a sovereign default. Sovereign default in Greece is possible if the demand for Greek government bonds will decrease so that it attracts the debt market funds will not be able to cover payments on the growing interest. Analysts IFD "RESMI" believe that in this case, EU countries start to buy debt of Greece to maintain demand. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI, Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 669 796 19.0% 1,999 52.14 Halyk bank 360.03 409 13.6% 1,006 52.55 Bank Center Credit 777 1,218 56.8% 865 48.80 ENRC 2,201 On review 2,755 47,60 Kazakhmys 3,000 On review 3,523 44,51 RD KMG 21,600 26,380 22.1% 26,734 44.90 Kazkhtelekom 17,700.01 33,842 91.2% n/a 36.63 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0% - Cost of ordinary shares of Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; - Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of bank shares to 409 tenge per share; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term, analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in bank securities to a level 1,230 m.; - Shares of Kazakhtelecom look the most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying ordinary shareholders of the issuer. - JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas - the company is actively consolidating oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan, which exports about 80% of its oil. Provision is 5% of the total volume of proven reserves in Kazakhstan. Analysts of IFD "RESMI" sees upside of 22% in the conservative approach, ie, while maintaining the production level as in 2008, increasing capex in 1.5 times, acquiring 50% stake in Mangistaumunaigaz and at an average price of oil at $ 65/barrel. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-02-12]