Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for February 3, 2010

/IRBIS, February 3, 2010/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for February 3, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today in the morning trading in Europe, major indexes in the region, most likely, will show a moderately negative dynamics after a two-day increase. Pressure on the market will also have a negative outlook API oil reserves. Yesterday the agency before the closing of the auctions in the U.S. reported an increase in oil reserves in the country. The resulting dynamics of the market will depend on a number of macroeconomic data on the world's largest economy. Today, out statistics on an index of business activity in the services sector (ISM Non Manufacturing) for December, forward looking data on employment (ADP Employment Change) for the same month, which usually are based on expectations of a more important indicator, Non-Farm Payrolls, and statistics reserves of oil and petroleum products in the U.S. from DOE. For all the macro-indicators is expected to improve the dynamics. - Today, an estimated by BTA Securities JSC, Kazakhstan's stock market may continue to increase. The appearance of the confidence of investors backed by strong macro-statistics, as well as good earnings reports will contribute to that. Today the local market should expect an increase in commodity companies quotes. In Distinguish Kazakhmys. Yesterday's increase in the GDR will be imposed on local quotes. In addition, the oil company KMG EP may play yesterday's fall. - Oil market today will also be influenced by market expectations of the Ministry of Energy data on U.S. commercial oil reserves. Left yesterday preliminary estimates of changes in inventories, prepared by the American Petroleum Institute, will make some adjustments in the dynamics of the market before the release of the report DOE. - Fundamental factors resume its influence on the metals market. Positive statistics from the U.S. construction market, industrial growth in emerging markets and positive statements of companies sector will support the metal market today. The weakening against other currencies, the dollar will provide additional support for the quotations metals. Kazakhstan shares are likely to maintain positive momentum. - Today analysts of BTA Securities expected appreciation of the euro / dollar on expectations of positive data on retail sales in the euro area, as well as continuing investor demand for risky assets. Positive data on employment in the United States and the service sector could play in favor of the euro, as support quotes raw materials. The British pound could be enhanced on the same grounds. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 8.9 5.5 Sell -38 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 650.0 410.0 Sell -37 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 280.0 205.0 Sell -27 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 10.0 7.9 Sell -21 HALYK BANK KASE 360.0 295.0 Sell -18 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 170.0 147.0 Hold -14 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 800.0 618.0 Sell -23 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 25.3 30.1 Buy +19 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 22,050.0 27,108.0 Buy +23 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.17 2.54 Buy +117 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,331.0 1,324.0 Hold -1 ENRC LSE 977.0 1,059.0 Hold +8 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.0 7.0 Hold +1 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.4 2.0 Sell -39 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,350.0 22,490.0 Buy +23 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.290 0.039 Sell -87 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 75.5 120.9 Buy +60 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-02-03]