Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for February 1, 2010

/IRBIS, February 1, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for February 1, 2010. Analysts now paying attention to the following investors' significant events: - Metals continue its "descent", the uncertainty of investors in respect of metals trading opened on the Asian markets with less copper steadily cheaper, as well as the group polymetals. Oil shows monthly fall against the four-month growth, against a background of still unhappily data from the API and EIA. Pressure on oil also has, increasingly, the dollar. The dynamics of the oil market is not defined exactly, but the market has growth potential. - Budget of the Republic of Kazakhstan will be reviewed. Government of Kazakhstan will soon start to adjust the national budget for 2010 taking into account the targets set by President Nursultan Nazarbayev to the people of the country. Adjustment related to the implementation of the program of forced industrial-innovative development of the country, as well as to increase social benefits. According to the Minister of Finance Boris Zhamisheva, the budget deficit for the current year will not be increased. The adjustment will affect the budget as revenue side and expenditure. According to assumptions IFD "RESMI", expenditure budget will undergo adjustments in connection with an increase in the cost of a program of forced industrial-innovation development, and income of the budget will be adjusted by increasing tax revenues by increasing the budgeted oil prices. Currently, the price of oil budgeted at $ 50/barrel mark Brent. - U.S. macro data. According to preliminary data, the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2009 increased by 5.7%, against the expected 4.5%. The main sources of growth have become public expenditure and the depreciation of U.S. currency, triggering recovery in the consumer sector and increasing exports. Personal expenses at an annual rate of 2% against the projected 1.8%. Positive news looked out at the end of last week created a positive background in the U.S. stock market. Thus, the extension of Ben Bernanke as head of the Fed and maintaining the discount rate at a low level for a long time had a positive impact on stock markets at the end of last week. But, despite this news, investors took positions in anticipation of expectant output makrostatistiki the U.S. and most of the sites were closed with a minus. According to most analysts of such data makrostatistiki create an extremely positive backdrop for U.S. equities market, because on the one hand, the time of cheap money has not yet ended, and with another - formed the fundamental prerequisites for investment. Analysts IFD "RESMI" believe that today the stock markets will take to the weakly positive trend. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI, Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 660 796.00 +18.8% 1,999 48.64 Halyk bank 351 409.00 +16,5% 1,238 Bank Center Credit 780 1,218.00 +54.2% 905 51.42 ENRC 2,223 On review 2 699 46,89 Kazakhmys 3,100 On review 3 609 46,01 RD KMG 23,500 26,380.00 +12.3% 26,364 58.30 Kazkhtelekom 18,800 33,842.00 +80.0% n/a 48.49 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0% Cost of ordinary shares of Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD RESMI will cost no less than KZT 796 per share by the end of 2010; Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD RESMI as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of bank shares to KZT 409 per share; Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term, analysts IFD RESMI about the outlook for growth in bank securities to a level 1,230 m.; Shares of Kazakhtelecom look the most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD RESMI recommend buying ordinary shareholders of the issuer. JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas - the company is actively consolidating oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan, which exports about 80% of its oil. Provision is 5% of the total volume of proven reserves in Kazakhstan. Analysts IFD "RESMI" sees upside of 22% in the conservative approach, ie, while maintaining the production level as in 2008, increasing capex in 1,5 times, acquiring 50% stake in Mangistaumunaigaz and at an average price of oil at $ 65/barrel. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-02-01]