Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for January 27, 2010

/IRBIS, January 27, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for January 27, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Before the beginning of the auctions in Europe there is a mixed news background. Among positive events it is necessary to allocate an exit of strong statistics of Japan on export which in December grew on 12 %, having exceeded forecasts of economists. The Internet Company Yahoo Inc has well reported yesterday American. Company incomes in the fourth quarter showed strong growth thanks to growth of incomes of advertising. The Asian markets while poorly react to events under the pressure of signals that the Chinese banks start to limit crediting of economy on request of the Central Bank of the Peoples Republic of China. The prices for oil and metals, and also shares of the raw companies decrease, but moderate rates. The prices for oil under the pressure of the become stronger dollar, news from China and negative forecasts of analysts concerning dynamics of stocks of oil in the USA last week this morning fluctuate at level $72-73 for barrel. In Europe, data API which showed appreciable decrease of stocks of oil and gasoline last week yet do not support to "oil" quotations. Session FRS where the destiny of programs on stimulation of financial sector and economy will dare becomes the basic event of day. The base rate remains not change since last data on economy of the USA has frankly disappointed the market. Analysts of "BTA Securities" tend to that the regulator decision can weaken dollar today that will positively be reflected in quotations of the prices on raw materials. In case of acknowledgement of forecasts API in the governmental report (DOE), the prices for oil can essentially grow. Data on sales of new houses where growth in December is expected can locally support the market. Last days S&P500 it was stabilized at a 100-day sliding average line (1087 points). Analysts of "BTA Securities" do not exclude increase of an index from this mark today. - Analysts of "BTA Securities" do not exclude that in the Kazakhstan share market domestic investors will continue to fix today positions on weak dynamics of foreign markets and the prices for raw materials in first half of day of the auctions in Europe. - The weak signs of growth shown by quotations of oil on Monday again have fallen under the pressure of gamble about turning of stimulating measures by the leading countries-consumers of oil. Quotations of oil of grade WTI still remain at low levels. Falling of quotations of oil looks excessive therefore it is possible to expect some correction upwards, in the nearest some days in case of positive results of session FRS and the weekly data on oil and gasoline stocks in the USA. - On a course of session FRS which will last two days, the market as "BTA Securities" seems, will receive signals about preservation of the base rate at former level that will help the basic currencies to restore the positions against dollar that is capable to support the market of metals. - Easing of dollar against decision ФРС the USA on the further credit policy on January, 27th is expected. Also technical strengthening of English pound is predicted. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.0 5.5 Sell -39 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 650.0 410.0 Sell -37 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 280.0 205.0 Sell -27 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.5 7.9 Sell -17 HALYK BANK KASE 347.0 295.0 Hold -15 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 170.0 147.0 Hold -14 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 765.0 618.0 Sell -19 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 26.1 30.1 Buy +15 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 23,500.0 27.108.0 Buy +15 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.18 2.54 Buy +115 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,274.0 1,324.0 Hold +4 ENRC LSE 926.5 1,059.0 Hold +14 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.5 7.0 Hold -6 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.4 2.0 Sell -40 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,500.0 22,490.0 Buy +22 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.215 0.039 Sell -82 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 73.0 120.9 Buy +66 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-01-27]