Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for January 25, 2010

/IRBIS, January 25, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH "RESMI") provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for January 25, 2010. Analysts of IFH RESMI expect today the further decrease in index КАSE against negative results of closing of the basic international share markets which on Friday were closed in a considerable minus. The basic pressure upon indexes has rendered the statement of Barrack Obama for the future new reform in bank system. Also pressure the proceeding tough policy of China against strong macro the data renders, gross national product, industrial production and inflations. Left reporting GE was positive, but the effect from the given reporting was shown to zero the statement of the US president for reform of financial sector. Serious pressure upon indexes is rendered by futures for oil, the mark reached record-breaking low price in $71.64 for barrel (Brent), against data API and EIA. Against a negative situation in the share market, investors enter into liquid dollar actives as traditionally the dollar is considered more reliable tool. Analysts now paying attention to the following investors' significant events: - For two days of the short auctions on January, 21st and 22, the prices for oil left from enough high quotations tFo the lowest for current month; falling made more than 4 %. Falling has been supported by report API where it has been revealed two essential factors which were an incitement for falling of the prices. Oil refining in the USA appeared on 20 % below capacity, at level 30 summer minima; and demand for oil lower on 1.75 % in comparison with the similar period of last year. The given report stimulated the bear mood in the market which was already established in the market since January, 8th. The prices for oil to report API and EIA were on January, 8th at high level, and only after have begun the falling, also pressure upon the price have rendered the negative data and news from China. Analysts of IFH RESMI consider that potential of a rise in prices for oil will be realized in February. On current falling of the prices for oil futures and quotations of the oil companies it is necessary to play bear or to buy papers in the long term the subsequent growth. - GDP: we leave on steady economic development. Following the results of social and economic development of the country for 2009, sounded on Friday at meeting of the government of Kazakhstan, the total internal product in real expression grew on 1.1 % in comparison with 2008. Growth of real gross national product in 2009 was predicted at level of 0.1 % in comparison with an indicator of 2008. Thus, actual growth of real gross national product exceeded look-ahead on 1 %. In 2010 gross national product growth is expected within 1.5-2 %. However, considering the conservative approach of the government at forecasting of macroeconomic indicators, growth of real gross national product will exceed look-ahead indicators. Under assumptions IFH RESMI, real growth of gross national product will exceed 2 %. - IPO: Lines Agro Group. From now on and IFH RESMI starts to trace exit process on IPO the Lithuanian company Lines Agro Group (further The group) which begins today and will last till February, 05th, 2010. The group is the integrated agrarian company which makes agriculture production. The group is based in 1991 and has begun the activity with export Lithuanian рапса to the Western Europe. For today the group unites eighteen connected companies and seven joint ventures in Lithuania, Latvia and Denmark. Lines Agro Group is the leading exporter production and accompanying products of the food- processing industry in the countries of Baltic, and also is the leading supplier raw materials for the Lithuanian companies-manufacturers. Group activity is divided into five segments: grain and a seed of olive culture, forage, agriculture production, raw materials for manufacturers and another. In addition, the Group has logistical the enterprise which is engaged in transportation of cargoes by courts, railway and motor transport. Analysts of IFH RESMI believe that the increase in the capital of the company after IPO will be insignificant since the basic part of actions for sale is a share of the majority shareholder which owns more than 80 % of actions, and additional placing insignificant. After IPO the share of the given shareholder will be reduced to 43.3 %. The company places 55 629 140 simple actions that makes 46 % (including 8 344 371 action which are subject to redistribution). Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI, Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 690 796 +15.4% 1,225 55.18 Halyk bank 346 409 +9.9% 1,238 Bank Center Credit 755 1,218 +54.1% 905 46.81 ENRC 2,300 On review 2.686 2,700 Kazakhmys 3,200 On review 3.608 3,606 RD KMG 23,500 26,380 26,441 58.30 Kazkhtelekom 18,838 33,842 +70.9% 21,700 47.86 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH "RESMI" for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0% Cost of common shares of JSC Kazkommertsbank according to IFH RESMI will cost not below 796 tenges (national currency of Kazakhstan) for the action by the end of 2010; The JSC Halyk Savings bank of Kazakhstan is estimated by IFH RESMI as more perspective from the point of view of development of business financial institutions to Kazakhstan. Analysts see growth of shares of this bank to 409 tenges for the share; JSC Bank CenterCreditBank shares in long-term prospect of analytics IFH RESMI estimate prospects of growth of papers of bank to level 1 230 tenges; JSC Kazakhtelekom shares look the most attractive to investment in long- term prospect. Analysts of IFH RESMI consider that growth potential in comparison with flowing by 71 % and recommend buying common shares of the emitter. JSC RazvedkaDobuchaKazMunaiGaz The company actively consolidating oil and gas branch in Kazakhstan, exporting about 80 % of extracted oil. Company reserves make 5 % from the general proved volumes of stocks in Kazakhstan. Analysts of IFH RESMI see upside in 22 % at the conservative approach, i.e. At preservation of level of extraction at level of 2008, increase cape in 1,5 times, acquisition of 50 % of a share in JSC MangistauMunaiGaz and at the average price for oil of 65$/barrel. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-01-25]