Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for January 20, 2010

/IRBIS, January 20, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for January 20, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Stock market will experience some volatility. In the first half day of trading in Europe, support for market shares will have the technology sector on the positive financial results of IBM. To contain the growth will be news from China, where the country's Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao said that the government will manage the pace of economic growth, in order to prevent the emergence of bubbles. In this regard, the country's central bank has asked some banks to reduce lending capacity of the economy, after its capitalization was not consistent with the requirements of the regulator. These news are likely to adversely affect the dynamics of prices of oil and metals and shares of mining companies. In the afternoon, trading can take in the negative direction of the pressure of oil prices. DOE data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products in the U.S. is unlikely to hope investors. Analysts expect stocks to increase last week. Difference in the world can a number of publications the financial results of U.S. banks. Today in the bidding report back: Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, M&T Bacorp. Also publish their reports to eBay, and Starbucks. -Reporting to date, the company has shown mixed results. - Analysts of BTA Securities expect the resumption of growth in the Kazakhstan market shares. Yesterday the picture on the world sites improved. However, commodity markets traded in negative territory. Today, perhaps in the price of individual stocks will rise by the banking sector. Not excluded the growth of stock quotes steel companies, Kazakhmys and ENRC, on expectations of positive data on China's GDP, leaving tomorrow. Also among the growing and shares may be Kazakhtelecom. - Current oil quotes have returned to a level of $ 78, and analysts BTA Securities believes that at this level there is support, below which the oil can escape only in case of a significant negative for the U.S. oil reserves. In morning trading on the background of strengthening the dollar fell half a percentage point quotes, fall today can be enhanced by expected increases in oil reserves in the U.S. according to DOE. Nevertheless, analysts BTA Securities does not rule out the resumption of bullish trend this week, in particular, due to the expected positive, inflation, the GDP of China. - Today or tomorrow macro-statistic data from the U.S. labor market and new construction projects will have some pressure on commodity quotes, if they prove to be disappointing. An additional factor of pressure today can be quickly minimized speculation about China's extensive package of incentives after the recent statements by Prime Minister of China. However, this pressure will be in the afternoon, to some extent offset by investor expectations of data from China, which will be available tomorrow morning. Kazakhmys and ENRC shares on the LSE today, will likely move sideways. - Euro/dollar in the near future can resume growth. At the auction on Tuesday rate dropped below 200 day moving (stamp 1.4298), which is a long-term level of support, and is trading now at 1.4213. The reason for the sharp fall yesterday was the announcement by Moody's that the seemingly long-term plan to address the budget deficit, proposed by the Government, yet can not be considered as such. Problems of Greece have deep roots, and its successful implementation is not guaranteed. Ratings agency of the country have been preserved at the level of A2. According to BTA Securities, depreciation is speculative because serious reasons for its decline below the above-mentioned mark no. At the current exchange rate appears undervalued relative to a pair pound/dollar, which traded above 200 day moving, but it has weaker macroeconomic indicators. In the next few days the euro may rise to the weakening of speculation about a default of Greece and the increasing demand for risky assets associated with the expected positive statistics on China's GDP. Moreover, a soft monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve will still put pressure on the dollar. According to BTA Securities, the U.S. will still maintain its policy of quantitative easing, because unemployment in the country remains high and so far only shown signs of stabilizing, rather than decreased. The latest employment data also showed that the dramatic improvement in the labor market until the early to say. In the best case, raising the base rate the Fed analysts BTA Securities expect to see in June this year and see the support for the euro / dollar at around 1.42, at this level, buying euros could resume. Forecast BTA Securities in the first quarter remains in force at the level of 1.49-1.50. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.6 5.5 Sell -42 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 707.0 410.0 Sell -42 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 308.0 205.0 Sell -33 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 10.5 7.9 Sell -25 HALYK BANK KASE 370.0 295.0 Sell -20 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 170.0 147.0 Hold -14 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 802.5 618.0 Sell -23 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 26.9 30.1 Hold +12 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 23,221.0 27,108.0 Buy +17 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.27 2.54 Buy +100 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,441.0 1,324.0 Hold -8 ENRC LSE 1,027.0 1,059.0 Hold +3 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.9 7.0 Hold -11 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.5 2.0 Sell -41 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,700.0 22,490.0 Hold +14 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.250 0.039 Sell -84 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 72.0 120.9 Buy +68 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-01-20]