Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for January 19, 2010

/IRBIS, January 19, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for January 19, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Tuesday morning, analysts BTA Securities expect the continuation of positive dynamics of the European markets, with the support prices of industrial metals and prized in morning trading oil. Dollar exchange rate today falls on expectations of negative statistics from the U.S. real estate market that supports the commodity market. Moreover, in Europe, will be published ZEW sentiment index in the economic sphere, according to which the optimism remains. Today, open auction in the U.S., during which, analysts of BTA Securities expect to see some volatility associated with an increase in stocks of commodity companies, and negative results of the reporting in today's opening of tenders Citigroup for the fourth quarter of 2009. Most experts predict the slopes of the loss of one of the leading players in the U.S. banking sector, that our expectations put pressure on the market. Forecast of annual EPS Citigroup Inc (-0.67), quarterly (-0.33). Today also reports to IBM, there are predicted positive results. - Analysts of BTA Securities expect the growth of the Kazakh market, yesterday renewed buying in the Kazakh sector of the GDR issuers. The positive atmosphere in the commodity markets, which on Monday was seen a rise in prices of industrial metals and oil, will support row-owners. Faster than the market will likely grow shares metallurgists - Kazakhmys and ENRC. The news of increasing outlook of Kazakhtelecom support his quotes. - quotes returned to the level of $ 78 and analysts of BTA Securities believes that at this level there is support, below which the oil can escape only in case of a significant negative for the U.S. oil reserves. Today quotations oil may rise, because at the current level of prices look attractive for optimistic investors. Also, the dollar weakened against the euro on expectations of weak data on new construction in the U.S. and the weakening of speculation about the problems of Greece. China begins to take a greater share of the news background on the market. Expectations of strong GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2009 can support quotes on Tuesday. The country has begun the second phase of building strategic reserves, which, obviously, will increase the demand for oil in China. - Scanty news background today, a weak dollar and investors' expectations of positive data on several important macro - indicators of China can count on the fact that market participants continue to occupy positions in the metals and steel companies' shares. Such developments should not interfere and data from the U.S. for new construction projects if they prove to be disappointing. Kazakhmys and ENRC shares on the LSE today will move in the positive zone. - Jan. 19 is expected weakening of the dollar against the backdrop of positive ZEW Survey Econ. Sentiment EU. Analysts BTA Securities forecast strengthening British pound against the backdrop of positive inflation Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.6 5.5 Sell -42 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 707.0 410.0 Sell -42 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 308.0 205.0 Sell -33 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 10.3 7.9 Sell -23 HALYK BANK KASE 374.0 295.0 Sell -21 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 170.0 147.0 Hold -14 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 791.0 618.0 Sell -22 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 26.9 30.1 Hold +12 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 23,221.0 27,108.0 Buy +17 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.25 2.54 Buy +103 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,445.0 1,324.0 Hold -8 ENRC LSE 1,030.0 1,059.0 Hold +3 ORSU METALS CORP. LSE 7.8 7.0 Hold -10 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 3.4 2.0 Sell -40 URANIUM ONE LSE 1,445.0 1,324.0 Hold -8 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,800.0 22,490.0 Hold +14 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.250 0.039 Sell -84 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 71.0 120.9 Buy +70 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-01-19]