Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for January 6, 2010

/IRBIS, January 6, 2010/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for January 6, 2010. On the main topic of the day will be the situation on the oil market. Snowfalls and frosts have occurred in China, Europe and the northeastern United States, consumes a quarter of the country's reserves of petroleum fuels, lead to greater demand for crude oil. In overlooking this report U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), investors will especially look at the statistics on stocks of crude oil rather than gasoline. According to preliminary estimates API, crude oil inventories in the U.S. last week fell to 2.27 million barrels. According to the consensus forecast of economists, oil reserves in the U.S. declined by 1 million barrels. The last three weeks of oil reserves in the U.S. fell as forecasts API and DOE coincide in direction. Analysts BTA Securities believes that the price of oil today would be moderately positive, that will support the stock market. Additional impetus to improve may be the fact of falling volatility index VIX, reflecting investors' expectations about the prospects for the stock market to a minimum since the beginning of 2009 marks, which indicates an increase in "bullish" sentiment. Among the macro- economic statistics today should be allocated ADP employment report for December, which is projected to show that U.S. companies cut fewer jobs than a month earlier. An important statistics will also be on the dynamics of the U.S. services sector (ISM Non-Manufacturing). Is also expected to improve its dynamics, which will support the stock market. Today, analysts of BTA Securities positively assess the dynamics of the Kazakhstan stock market. Growth should be expected from representatives of the metallurgical and oil sector, in particular, Kazakhmys and KMG EP. However, analysts of BTA Securities do not expect an increase in the number of buyers and significant growth in liquidity trades. Shares of the banking sector will remain on the sidelines in the absence of driving forces. WTI quotes are close to the level of $ 82 and now analysts of BTA Securities expect to continue growing trend in the run-up data on oil reserves from the U.S. Department of Energy. According to the consensus of analysts Bloomberg is expected to decrease oil reserves by 1 million barrels and gasoline inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels. Expected weakening of the dollar today on the expected positive macro-data on the U.S., will likely support the quotation of precious metals. Copper and zinc today can expect a partial correction in the background fixing and removing some of the profits from the agenda the issue of strikes in Chile. As a result of today's trading, as analysts expect BTA Securities will be awarded with moderately positive dynamics of shares of Kazakhmys and ENRC. On January 6 expected weakening of the dollar against the backdrop of relative positive labor market and ISM Non-Manf. Composite U.S.. We also expect technical weakening British pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.1 5.5 Sell -40 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 665.0 410.0 Sell -38 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 263.0 205.0 Sell -22 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.2 7.9 Hold -14 HALYK BANK KASE 328.0 295.0 Hold -10 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 170.0 147.0 Hold -14 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 756.0 618.0 Sell -18 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 27.0 30.1 Hold +11 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 22,400.0 27,108.0 Buy +21 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.18 2.54 Buy +115 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,397.0 1,324.0 Hold -5 ENRC LSE 970.0 1,059.0 Hold +9 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.50 1.30 Buy +160 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.7 7.0 Hold -9 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 2.0 Sell -33 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 17,300.0 22,490.0 Buy +30 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.270 0.039 Sell -86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 63.8 120.9 Buy +90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-01-06]