Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for Dcember 31, 2009

/IRBIS, December 31, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for December 31, 2009. - Analysts of BTA Securities expect a moderate increase of the basic indexes in Europe and the U.S., supported by rising prices for oil and industrial metals. The reason for the increase today would be speculation that China in 2010 will be the leader of economic growth and a key figure in the output of the global crisis. The head of the Central Bank of China, today announced that in 2010, the regulator will maintain a "moderately soft" monetary policy, as well as new lending to strategic sectors to improve employment and economic growth. Driver of market growth is now also become positive market expectations regarding the statistics of China's industrial production (PMI Manufacturing) for December, which will be available tomorrow morning. According to the forecasts of economists, the index PMI is expected to rise to 55.4 points from 55.2 points a month earlier. The key for the market today will also be weekly U.S. data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. Economists expect growth in applications up to 460 thousand to 452 thousand a week earlier. However, even if negative, the market may get support through the weakening of the dollar. Technical analysis indicates a decrease of U.S. indexes on Thursday. Dynamics of futures speaks of the modest increase in the U.S. market. - The situation on the Kazakh stock market does not change. Analysts of BTA Securities believe that this may result in buyers for shares of the national operator. No obvious fundamental reasons for yesterday's decline were not. The fair value of one simple action Kazakhtelecom we estimate is KZT22,490. Price earned the ability to generate positive free cash flow and financial stability of the dominant player in its industry. - Quotations of oil once again stand on the threshold of $ 80, having undergone in the last 2 weeks 13% rise. In view of the upcoming weekend and the possible negative unemployment U.S. quotes oil could come under pressure. However, support for oil may have data on production of China, leaving the next morning, which may be reflected in today's quotations in the course of American and European trading. - Growth shown by copper and zinc for a long time, can now be supported by positive market expectations regarding Chinese statistics on industrial production that goes tomorrow. Quotes of gold fell to attractive levels of entry into it. This factor is likely to intensify now expects a weakening of the dollar against the publication of data on primary and re-enroll to receive unemployment benefits in the United States. As it is expected a negative. As a result, today analysts BTA Securities expect moderately positive dynamics of quotations of securities Kazakhmys and ENRC. - Dec. 31 is expected weakening of the dollar against the backdrop of the negative on the U.S. labor market. Analysts BTA Securities predicted the weakening of pound against the negative Nat'wide House prices in Britain. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.1 5.5 Sell -40 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 665.0 410.0 Sell -38 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 263.0 205.0 Sell -22 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.5 7.9 Sell -16 HALYK BANK KASE 322.0 295.0 Hold -8 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 170.0 147.0 Hold -14 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 743.0 618.0 Sell -17 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 25.0 30.1 Buy +20 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,200.0 27,108.0 Buy +28 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.18 2.54 Buy +115 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,315.0 1,324.0 Hold +1 ENRC LSE 911.5 1,059.0 Buy +16 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.51 1.30 Buy +155 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.5 7.0 Hold -6 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 2.0 Sell -33 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 17,200.0 22,490.0 Buy +31 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.270 0.039 Sell -86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 64.5 120.9 Buy +87 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-12-31]