Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for Dcember 30, 2009

/IRBIS, December 30, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for December 30, 2009. - on Wednesday correction in the stock market may continue. The main influence on the market will provide the dynamics of the dollar. Today, the American will continue to strengthen against the euro on favorable macroeconomic data, the U.S., emerged yesterday, as well as the European Commission reported that half the countries in the euro area is unsustainable credit ratings. The dynamics of the dollar would adversely affect the movement of quotations of commodities and market shares, however, a significant reduction of the latter, we do not expect. Support to the market today can provide only weekly data on U.S. stocks of crude oil and petroleum products. Statistics API yesterday showed the reduction in stocks of crude oil and gasoline. Economists expect the decline of crude oil and rising gasoline stocks. Since forecasts API usually coincide with the official data, you can expect a rise in oil price quotations. Technical analysis indicates a decrease of U.S. indexes on Wednesday. - analysts of BTA Securities noted that the situation in Kazakhstan's market share does not change. Participants took a break, waiting for the beginning of 2010. Today should not expect an increase in the number of buyers and significant growth in the stock market. - Today the dynamics of quotations of oil will be determined by the data on oil reserves, published by the Ministry of Energy. After three weeks of rapid decline, the data this week will probably show growth. However, the temperature in the U.S. remains below average, which could have facilitated reduction in gasoline stocks, a positive factor for the quotations of oil. In this case, the motion of quotations will be positive, making them closer to the level of $ 80. If the reduction is negligible, then it will serve as a pretext for downward correction after 13% growth over the last 2 weeks. - Expected continued strengthening of the dollar today, according to analysts BTA Securities is likely to exert pressure on the quotations of gold and base metals. The ongoing strikes at Chilean copper deposits, and data from the International Aluminum Institute (International Aluminium Institute, IAI) of the world's stocks of aluminum, falling in November by 29% compared to the same month last year, will support the market. Against this background, we can expect a moderate decrease of quotations of securities Kazakhmys and ENRC. - Dec. 30 is expected to strengthen the dollar amid expectations the Fed tightening of monetary policy. Analysts BTA Securities predict technical weakening British pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.1 5.5 Sell -40 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 670.0 410.0 Sell -39 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 263.0 205.0 Sell -22 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.5 7.9 Sell -16 HALYK BANK KASE 325.0 295.0 Hold -9 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 170.0 147.0 Hold -14 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 740.0 618.0 Sell -16 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.8 30.1 Buy +21 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,500.0 27,108.0 Buy +26 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.17 2.54 Buy +117 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,310.0 1,324.0 Hold +1 ENRC LSE 910.5 1,059.0 Buy +16 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.55 1.30 Buy +136 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.4 7.0 Hold -5 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 2.0 Sell -31 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,600.0 22,490.0 Buy +21 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.270 0.039 Sell -86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 63.5 120.9 Buy +90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-12-30]