Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for December 29th, 2009

/IRBIS, December 29, 09/ - Experts of this company expect today that basic indexes of Europe and USA will continue show their promotions. The important factor of this optimism is positive moods of investors which are sure that situations in economy are becoming better. The prices for oil and metals achieved maximum levels for this year, by the way index of S&P500 could overcome level of resistance on a mark 1121 spots which became higher above which it couldn't rise since November of this year. Today we can see positive dynamics of the stock which will show extracting companies. Demand of China in industrial metals will grow because forecasts of this economy are good and tendency goes to favorable end which happened because of global financial crisis. Indicators of USA on an index of consumer potential which is counted by agency Conference Board can influence on further ways of the support to the market. Economists expect that this indicator will increase to a mark in 53 points from 49.5 points which happened one month ago. Today also we'll see forecasts API on dynamics of reserves of oil and gasoline. In case of positive data of the price of oil can continue growth to a mark of 80$ for one barrel. Last two weeks data API showed decreasing these reserves and government agreed with it and proved. Analytical department of JSC BTA Securities considers that constraining influence on the market can make the American dollar which probably will demonstrate its forceful side and this effect is inevitable because macro data across the USA. The technical analysis specifies in increase of the American indexes on Tuesday. Today analysts of JSC "BTA Securities" positively estimate tendencies in the Kazakhstan share market. However increase in number of buyers and accordingly growth of liquidity of the trades it is not expected. Participants expect the beginning of 2010, observing from outside. All as analysts of JSC "BTA Securities" expect growth of quotations from Kazahmys, ENRC and RDGZ Dynamics of quotations of oil, most likely, will be today positive against expected growth of the Index of consumer confidence of the USA. Possible growth of stocks of oil according to API in second half of day will make constraining impact on quotations. However the temperature on territory of the USA remains below the average level that could promote reduction of stocks of gasoline, the positive factor for oil quotations. Analysts of JSC "BTA Securities" expect that today with renewal of the auctions the raw goods and actions in London will show growth, after Asia and America. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange --------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks: --------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDR's Kazkommertsbank LSE 9.1 5.5 Sell, -40 Common Shares Kazkommertsbank KASE 686 410 Sell -40 KKGBp KASE 264.0 205.0 Hold -22 GDR's Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan LSE 9.0 7.9 Hold -12 Common Shares JSC Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan KASE 328.4 295.0 Hold -10 HSBKp KASE 170.0 147.0 Hold -14 HSBKp1 KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 JSC Bank Center Credit - CCBN KASE 788 618 Sell -22 --------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and gas: --------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDR's +21 RazvedkaDobychaKazMunaiG az LSE 24.8 30.1 Buy Common Shares JSC +28 RazvedkaDobuchaKazMunaiG az KASE 21,183.0 27,108.0 Buy, BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.27 2.54 Buy +100 --------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy --------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,288.0 1,324.0 Hold +3 ENRC LSE 905.0 1,059.0 Buy +17 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.49 1.30 Buy +165 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.2 7.0 Hold -2 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 2.0 Sell -31 --------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies of small capitalization: --------------------------------------------------------------------------- JSC Kazakhtelekom KASE 18,600.0 22,490.0 Buy +21 Kazakhstan Kagazu LSE 0.280 0.039 Sell -86 Steppe Cement LSE 63.5 120.9 Buy +90 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Agency IRBIS isn't not responsible for opinions which were shown in this material. And there's no any suggestion or recommendation about deals with financial instruments in this file/information. [2009-12-29]