Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH "RESMI" (Kazakhstan) for December 23, 2009

/IRBIS, December 23, 09/ - Finance & Investment House "RESMI" JSC (Almaty, IFH "RESMI") provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for December 23, 2009. Analysts now paying attention to the following investors' significant events: - In anticipation of a revaluation. Today the National Bank of Kazakhstan issued a review of the monetary aggregates as of December 1, 2009. This review suggests that monetary aggregates do not include foreign currency and deposits denominated in it, such as M0 (cash in circulation) and M1 (M0 plus transferable deposits in national currency of nonbank legal entities and the population), showed an increase for the month of November. Indicator M0 rose by 2% and M1 increased by 3.6%. The low growth rate of 0.7% was observed in terms of M2, which includes transferable deposits in foreign currency of nonbank legal entities and the population. At the same time, M3 consists of M2 and other foreign currency deposits decreased by 3%. According to assumptions IFH RESMI, including the reduction of units of foreign currency due revalvatsionnymi expectations and reduced foreign currency positions. - China resupplies. Pending correction. China intends to build up the level of imports and stocks of key commodities. Current prices for raw materials such as metals and oil are not very attractive to replenish the strategic reserves and imports of China. It was in China during the crisis are actively buying various kinds of raw materials, metals and oil, which supported rising prices for raw materials, and allowed many oil and commodity companies favorably out of the crisis period. Obviously, China "felt" the taste for cheap raw materials, and have accumulated sufficient reserves can now put pressure on the dynamics of prices of basic commodities. However, it is worth noting that recently the markets have received information that China planned to surplus production in some industries. In this regard, analysts of IFH RESMI do not exclude that China will behave according to the scenario "blow" (apparently controlled) bubble in the property sector and steel sector, which would put pressure on commodities and industrial metals. The likelihood of this option is quite possible that information may be a strategy for China to implement the pressure on world prices for basic raw materials. China is the largest importer of iron ore, copper, lead, and the second after the U.S. oil consumer. Analysts of IFH RESMI believe in the future, expect the correction in the market of metals such as copper, iron ore, etc., which would then allow China to carry out purchases at lower prices. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI, Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ------ Kazkommertsbak 630 912 +44.8% 1,096 47.92 Halyk bank 322 409 +27.2% 1,118 Bank Center Credit 770 1,218 +58.2% 935 50.73 ENRC 2,100 On review 2,568 43.62 Kazakhmys 3,050 On review 3,452 48.04 RD KMG 21,500 26,380 +22.7% 26,520 Kazkhtelekom 18,600 33,842 +81.9% 21,700 44.77 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH "RESMI" for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0% After correction occurred analysts of IFH RESMI expect growth in the value of ordinary shares of Kazkommertsbank. According to the IFH RESMI these papers will be worth no less than KZT 912 per share; Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFH RESMI as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. According to the IFH RESMI growth is possible up to KZT 409 per share; Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long-horizon investment analysts IFH RESMI about the outlook for growth in bank securities to a level 1,230 m.; Shares of Kazakhtelecom look the most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts of IFH RESMI believe that the potential for growth compared with the current price of 82% and recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. Exploration Production KazMunaiGas JSC - the company is actively consolidating oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan, which exports about 80% of its oil. Provision is 5% of the total volume of proven reserves in Kazakhstan. Analysts of IFH RESMI sees upside of 23% in the conservative approach - ie, while maintaining the production level as in 2008, increased capex in 1,5 times, acquiring 50% stake in Mangistaumunaigaz and at an average price of oil at $ 65/barrel. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-12-23]