Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH "RESMI" (Kazakhstan) for December 22, 2009

/IRBIS, December 22, 09/ - Finance & Investment House "RESMI" JSC (Almaty, IFH "RESMI") provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for December 22, 2009. Analysts now paying attention to the following investors' significant events: - Kazakhtelecom raises the tariffs and profits in the next year. According to the order of the Agency of Kazakhstan for Informatization and Communication of November 13, 2009, from January 1, 2010 of Kazakhtelecom increases the monthly subscription fee for individuals: for the city by 18% and for rural areas by 30%. Also, be increased monthly fee for individual entrepreneurs, both in urban and in rural areas by 10%. Additionally, the company announced a reduction of tariffs for long distance (intrazone) telephone connections for individuals to 5-7%, whereas for individual entrepreneurs and legal entities decline is not provided. Thus, the projected income of the company will increase next year, not only by increasing the customer base, but also by increasing the average revenue per user services. - Revision of the rating of Kazakh companies. Rating agency Fitch continues to review ratings of Kazakh companies. The agency upgraded the rating to negative to stable following companies: NC KMG, KMG KMG, KazTransOil, JSC NAC Kazatomprom, JSC Kazakhstan Temir Joly, KEGOC, Mangistau Electricity Distribution Company, ATFBank. Analysts of IFH RESMI believe that the increase in ratings of Kazakh companies to "stable" will result in the short term to increased activity of foreign investors in the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange. - Kazkommertsbank repay the loan. December 18, 2009 Kazkommertsbank repaid a syndicated loan of $ 300 million. This loan is a second and final tranche of a syndicated loan totaling $ 1 billion first tranche of $ 700 m. was repaid in 2007. In 2010, the bank has no large payments. Redemption was conducted at the expense of own funds of the bank. According to assumptions IFH RESMI, in the short term, the company's stock will remain stable, because current price reflects the repayment of the loan. However, in the 12 month term, analysts IFH RESMI see the growth and recommend buying shares Kazkommertsbank. Analysts of IFH "RESMI" give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI, Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ------ Kazkommertsbak 680 912 +34.1 % 1,096 56.85 Halyk bank 320 409 +27.8 % 1,118 Bank Center Credit 775 1,218 +57.2 % 935 51.48 ENRC 2,100 On review 2,568 43.62 Kazakhmys 3,000 On review 3,452 45.09 RD KMG 21,500 26,380 +22.7 % 26,076 Kazkhtelekom 18,525 33,842 +82.7 % 21,700 43.84 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH "RESMI" for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0% After correction occurred analysts IFH RESMI expect growth in the value of ordinary shares of Kazkommertsbank. According to the IFH RESMI these papers will be worth no less than KZT 912 per share; Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFH RESMI as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. According to the IFH RESMI growth is possible up to KZT 409 per share; Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long-horizon investment analysts IFH RESMI about the outlook for growth in bank securities to a level KZT 1,230 m.; Shares of Kazakhtelecom look the most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts of IFH RESMI believe that the potential for growth compared with the current price of 83% and recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas - the company is actively consolidating oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan, which exports about 80% of its oil. Provision is 5% of the total volume of proven reserves in Kazakhstan. Analysts IFH RESMI sees upside of 23% in the conservative approach - ie, while maintaining the production level as in 2008, increased capex in 1,5 times, acquiring 50% stake in Mangistaumunaigaz and at an average price of oil at $ 65/barrel. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-12-22]