Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for Dcember 15, 2009

/IRBIS, December 15, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for December 15, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - After four in the stock markets, today investors will probably prefer to record profits for shares in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, where the lights are projected market is likely to announce the imminent departure from the policy of low rates. In this regard, today the euro / dollar will most likely show a moderately negative dynamics that has a moderating influence on commodity markets. Not in favor of the euro today and said the December statistics for the ZEW economic sentiment index, which is expected to decrease compared with the previous month. Statistics on industrial production in the U.S., if the positive forecasts of economists are confirmed, could support the stock market. Effect on the market today will provide a report API oil reserves. In general, analysts of BTA Securities inclined to believe that its dynamics will be moderately negative today. Technical analysis indicates an increase in the stock market today. - According to BTA Securities, on Tuesday at the Kazakhstan stock market investors will keep a restrained investment policy. Among the growing market shares likely to be of Kazakhtelecom. Other representatives of the index have low chances of promotion. - In the banking sector in Kazakhstan is lull. Significant news on the sector and there will likely not be in the coming months. The most important events have already played. The dynamics of foreign markets still remain volatile that does not yet allow clear as in opinion. Analysts BTA Securities believe that is the right time to secure profits on shares of banks, given their high cost at current levels. - Expectation of the market news in terms of base rate, which should come with tomorrow's meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to strengthen the U.S. currency. This will also put pressure on oil quotas, which will be mitigated by the expected publication today on industrial production in the U.S. for November. As it is expected to increase from 0.1% to 0.5%. - Today, expected to be published today by the U.S. industrial production in November. Expected growth rate of 0.1% in October to 0.5%. For the metals market this factor can not become a powerful factor in support of the expected by BTA Securities today to strengthen the dollar, which likely will take place on speculation at the earliest possible time, an increase in base rates in anticipation of tomorrow's meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Analysts of BTA Securities now expects moderate negative dynamic sector. - Dec. 15 is expected a slight weakening of the euro against the dollar in anticipation of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Analysts of BTA Securities forecast strengthening British pound against the backdrop of positive inflation in the UK. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.0 5.5 Sell -39 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 647.0 410.0 Sell -37 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 270.0 205.0 Sell -24 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.2 7.9 Hold -4 HALYK BANK KASE 310.0 295.0 Hold -5 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 176.0 147.0 Sell -16 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 760.0 618.0 Sell -19 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.5 30.1 Buy +23 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,500.0 27,108.0 Buy +26 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.05 2.54 Buy +142 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,268.0 1,324.0 Hold +4 ENRC LSE 891.5 1,059.0 Buy +19 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.54 1.30 Buy +141 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.9 7.0 Hold -11 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 2.0 Sell -32 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,099.0 22,490.0 Buy +18 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.300 0.039 Sell -87 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 66.5 120.9 Buy +82 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-12-15]