Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH "RESMI" (Kazakhstan) for December 14, 2009

/IRBIS, December 14, 09/ - Finance & Investment House "RESMI" JSC (Almaty, IFH "RESMI") provided by IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for December 14, 2009. Analysts now paying attention to the following investors' significant events: Cooperation between Kazakhstan and China, in the program of industrial development of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan supports China intends to implement several breakthrough projects in the industrial and fuel - the energy sector of Kazakhstan, the initiative is "the ratification of agreement between the Government of Kazakhstan and China on the construction and operation of the Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline". Under the corporate agreement between China Eximbank and the BRC to provide a credit line of $ 10 billion Development Bank of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan plans to build a gas-chemical complex in Atyrau and construction of steel plant in Aktobe and Atyrau Refinery to finance the modernization and construction of some projects may ENRC and Kazakhmys . IFH of "RESMI" notes that should also take into account the proposals voiced chairman of the PRC on deepening cooperation between China and Kazakhstan in the sphere of oil and gas, education, finance, steel, and not commodities. The current economic crisis has led to a sharp depreciation and deterioration of affairs in many corporations, including those engaged in mining and processing mineral resources. Analysts IFD "RESMI" believe that in the near future, expect big and serious investment from China, which has accumulated huge foreign exchange reserves and actively investing and buying assets around the world. This is an agreement on gas supplies from Papua New Guinea, and several projects in the mining sector in Australia, and a gas pipeline from Siberia to China and a joint Russian-Chinese development of the Far East on the Chinese money, and the Turkmenistan - China. Bonds of Nurbank : again in the price. Today is expected to resume trading of bonds of Nurbank 5th issue (NURBb5). Analysts IFD "RESMI" evaluate the financial condition of the issuer as a stable and recommend to buy these bonds. Analysts IFD "RESMI" see bond yields in the short term at the level of 7,5%. Again is positive statistics. According to data released by the Statistics Agency of RK, the index of business activity of industrial and business confidence index, which characterizes the business activities of enterprises of trade, increased compared with the previous month - 2 percentage points (pp) and at 1 pm, respectively. In November 2009 the index of business activity of industrial enterprises, compared with the previous month increased by 2 pm and made (4)% (taking into account the seasonality factor). The main driver enhance business activity of industrial enterprises has reduced stocks of finished products, as well as the positive assessment of the expected release. Thus, managers expect the upward trend of business activity to continue in the run up to February 2010 index will rise by 2 pm and will be (+6)%. The index of business confidence, which characterizes the business activity of enterprises trading in November compared to October rose by 1% and amounted to (9)% (taking into account the seasonality factor). In the segment of trade marked decline in commodity stocks, as well as improved financial and economic situation. Leaders commercial enterprises, as well as industry, believe that favorable situation will continue in the next 2-3 months and the index will increase to February 2010 at 2 pm and is (+11)%. Analysts IFD "RESMI" note that these indices are showing positive results for the month of November, but it is worth considering that they take into account the evaluation of heads of enterprises, which can overestimate or underestimate the prospects. Analysts of IFH "RESMI" give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI, Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 680 912 +34.1 % 1,096 58.27 Halyk bank 325 409 +25.8,% 1,118 Bank Center Credit 790 1,218 +54.2 % 935 53.68 ENRC 2,200 On review 2,571 49.51 Kazakhmys 3,011 On review 3,480 45.62 RD KMG 21,900 On review 5,011 52.42 Kazkhtelekom 19,000 33,842 +78.1 % 21,700 48.76 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH "RESMI" for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0% Cost of ordinary shares of Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KTZ 912 per share. Current same levels (P/E and P/ BV) show the "overheated" market and in the short term correction; IFD "RESMI" removes Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan with the review and see the growth of bank shares to KTZ 409 per share; Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term, analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth of securities the bank to the level of KTZ 1,230 m.; Shares of Kazakhtelecom look the most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts of IFH "RESMI" believe that the potential for growth compared with the current price of 78.1% and recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-12-14]