Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for Dcember 10, 2009

/IRBIS, December 10, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for December 10, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Thursday dynamics of the market shares will be determined by macroeconomic statistics for the Eurozone and the U.S.. In Europe today come data on industrial production in France and Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. In the United States are published weekly statistics on initial applications for unemployment benefits. The situation in the U.S. consumer sector still remains valid, so the data on applications will be particular attention. Economists expect that last week the number of applications increased to 460K from 457K the prior week. From a technical standpoint, today one can see increasing market shares. Prices for WTI crude oil yesterday fell to a mark of $ 70.7 per barrel., Which is a strong level of support. The euro / dollar also rebounded yesterday from the bottom of the channel, in which he moves from the beginning of June. One can assume that the correction in the oil market and the exchange is over, unless it is extremely negative news from the credit market. - Analysts of BTA Securities expected to remain negative dynamics in the Kazakh market, due to the uncertainty in foreign markets and falling oil prices. In bank stocks also remain missing drivers. Today is expected to increase quotations Kazakhtelecom. Wednesday operator has increased markedly in Frankfurt. - Today, stock quotes, Kazakh banks are likely to come down on the negative dynamics of the GDR on the London Stock Exchange. Analysts BTA Securities still recommend to fix the profit on equity instruments sector, because believe that they are substantially overvalued. - over the past 5 days, oil has fallen more than 7%, while shares of oil companies, only 2-5%, which may indicate that investors are considering lowering quotations of oil as a temporary and not in a hurry to part with oil assets. Analysts BTA Securities expects that by the end of the week will reverse the trend, as the basic data on Thursday and Friday (a week of unemployment, retail sales and consumer confidence in November) promises to be positive, and opportunities to play in lowering investors are less and less. In addition, the dollar again weakened against the euro after a four-building, and is expected to further weaken it. - a slight strengthening of the euro against the dollar, indicated the yesterday, today, as analysts expect BTA Securities, will continue, that will be supportive factor for gold quotations. Publication of weak data on orders for industrial machinery Japanese production will further pressure on the quotations of copper. These circumstances lead to a decrease in quotations of Kazakhmys. Quotes of ENRC will mark a moderate growth today. - Dec. 10 is expected weakening of the dollar against the euro on positive U.S. Monthly Budget Statement. Also projected weakening of the pound against the decision of the Bank of England rate. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 8.9 5.5 Sell -38 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 653.0 410.0 Sell -37 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 290.0 205.0 Sell -29 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.2 7.9 Hold -3 HALYK BANK KASE 319.0 295.0 Hold -8 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 176.0 147.0 Sell -16 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 785.0 618.0 Sell -21 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.2 30.1 Buy +24 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,600.0 27,108.0 Buy +26 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.02 2.54 Buy +149 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,224.0 1,324.0 Hold +8 ENRC LSE 880.0 1,059.0 Buy +20 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.61 0.30 Buy +113 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.9 7.0 Hold -10 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 2.0 Sell -33 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,990.0 22,490.0 Buy +18 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.270 0.039 Sell -86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 67.5 120.9 Buy +79 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-12-10]