Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for Dcember 9, 2009

/IRBIS, December 9, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for December 9, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today the stock market, perhaps, deserves correction upward after two days of fall. The market, according to the dynamics of the major indexes are still in the process of consolidation, despite the fall in oil prices and the euro / dollar to local minima, suggesting the preservation of "bullish" sentiment. Support for market shares today should give oil prices, which have been positive fundamental news. Report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) yesterday showed a significant decline in oil reserves in the United States, more than 5 million barrels. That may be connected with the revival in consumer demand while improving the labor market situation. Restraining influence on the market will have negative news from Asia, where GDP growth in Japan in the third quarter amounted to only 1.3% against the forecast at 4.8%. Fear will still call the credit ratings of euro zone countries, as well as the situation in Dubai. - On the Kazakhstan stock market today may be the continuation of sales of shares of Bank CenterCredit. However, the wave of sales would not be so rapid. In general, analysts of BTA Securities look at the market from a position of cautious negative against negative dynamics of foreign markets. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities don't see a reason to restore the positions on the shares and GDRs of the banking sector in Kazakhstan. Equity instruments of all, without exception, issuers seem expensive at current levels, in the absence of positive news for the sector and the negative dynamics of the global market shares, would involve only a record of profits. Shares of Bank CenterCredit, according to BTA Securities, still retain some potential for the mitigation that is not excluded at the auction on Wednesday. - crude oil today is likely to rise on data on stocks Release DOE, which is expected after positive data of API, show a significant decrease. The expected weakening of the dollar will also provide support for quotes. - technical analysis of the data allows analysts to BTA Securities today expect a weaker dollar, which will support the quotes in gold. At the base metals are now expected to moderate the negative dynamics. Kazakh issuers today also show a moderate decrease in quotations of its shares. - On December 9, expected technical weakening of the dollar against the euro. Analysts BTA Securities predicted the weakening pound against the background of the negative trade balance for the UK. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.1 5.5 Sell -40 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 680.0 410.0 Sell -40 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 304.0 205.0 Sell -33 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.6 7.9 Hold -8 HALYK BANK KASE 333.0 295.0 Hold -11 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 176.0 147.0 Sell -16 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 750.0 618.0 Sell -18 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.2 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,600.0 n.a. On review n.a. BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.05 2.54 Buy +142 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,250.0 1,324.0 Hold +6 ENRC LSE 886.0 824.0 Buy +20 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.64 0.13 Sell -80 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.0 7.0 Hold -11 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.1 2.0 Sell -34 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,100.0 22,490.0 Buy +18 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.280 0.039 Sell -86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 67.5 120.9 Buy +79 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-12-09]