Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for Dcember 8, 2009

/IRBIS, December 8, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for December 8, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today, the dynamics of the stock market will again be determined by the direction of movement of the euro / dollar. Yesterday, the hopes for recovery of the euro/dollar are not justified. The dramatic strengthening of the dollar on Friday has raised speculation investors that the dollar can demonstrate strong growth in relation to major foreign currencies on expectations of a speedy withdrawal of anti-crisis measures. The euro / dollar yesterday reached 1.4756 marks, where he received strong support (lower edge) and eventually closed at 1.4827. Good support for the European currency yesterday, had a statement by the head of the Federal Reserve that the U.S. labor market is still in a weak condition, and credit resources are still available for the low economy. This indirectly confirms the fact that the regulator will not rush to increase the base rate. The fact that the world economy still needs the support of today also confirmed the announcement by the Government of Japan on the economic stimulus plan worth $ 81 billion euro / dollar in morning trading increases, which allows anticipating a moderate increase market shares, with the support of commodity markets. Also, oil futures at the local levels look cheap ($ 74 per bbl.), so analysts of BTA Securities don't rule out raising the speculative demand for "black gold" today. Technical analyses point to the increasing market shares on Tuesday. - on the Kazakhstan stock market today, analysts of BTA Securities don't expect active action against purchases from investors because of the ambiguous dynamics of foreign markets. Shares of domestic banks may go down to the fixation of profits. - stock quotes and GDR of Kazakhstan's banking sector is at the maximum from the beginning of this year's levels, which in the absence of factors supporting, not now, lets hope for further growth. The first candidate to decline today are shares of BCC, which is now trading much higher rates of placement of new ordinary and convertible preference shares. Analysts BTA Securities recommends "sell" prime bank's shares at current levels. The new target price on them is KTZ 618, which is below than previous forecast at 16%. Is expected a similar reduction in carrying value of bank shares as a result of new issuance. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities expect the increase in oil quotes, as investors, accustomed to the price range at $ 75-80, make haste, take a decrease in prices. Pressure will have expectations of rising U.S. fuel stocks for last week on the version of the API. However, the support may have a short-term forecast prices for oil and petroleum products U.S. Department of Energy, published in the first half of the day. - Yesterday's statement by Mr. Ben Bernanke reinforced the conviction that the Fed will continue its policy of low interest rates and longer-term horizon. It seems to us, the resultant effect of the second determines the current dynamics of the dollar. As a consequence of weakening of U.S. currency, today analysts of BTA Securities expect moderately positive dynamics of sectoral indices and metals prices. - on December 8, expected weakening of the dollar against the euro on the background positive for IBD / TIPP Economic Optimism. Analysts of BTA Securities forecast strengthening of British pound against the background of the relative positive for the industrial production of Great Britain. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.1 5.5 Sell -39 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 677.5 410.0 Sell -39 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 304.0 205.0 Sell -33 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.0 7.9 Hold -12 HALYK BANK KASE 335.0 295.0 Hold -12 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 176.0 147.0 Sell -16 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 840.0 618.0 Sell -26 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.2 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,900.0 n.a. On review n.a. BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.05 2.54 Buy +142 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,279.0 1,324.0 Hold +4 ENRC LSE 901.5 824.0 Hold -9 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.63 0.13 Sell -79 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.8 7.0 Hold -10 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.2 2.0 Sell -35 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,501.0 22,490.0 Buy +22 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.280 0.039 Sell -86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 68.0 120.9 Buy +78 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-12-08]