Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 25, 2009

/IRBIS, November 25, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for November 25, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Wednesday, analysts of BTA Securities expect to see the final fall of the global market shares. On Tuesday, the market once again showed his lack of confidence due to disappointing data on personal consumption and not enough strong figures on consumer confidence index in the U.S.. SnP500 stabilized at just above 1,100 points, the euro / dollar - at a mark close to 1.5 and price of oil fallen to $ 76 per barrel. In the first half day of trading in Europe, the market may show weak positive momentum on the encouraging data on Japanese exports, which in October fell less than expected pace, signaling the growth of consumer goods in this country in the United States and China. U.S. dollar in morning trading again decreases, which can positively affect the dynamics of futures commodity prices. Determinant of future market dynamics today become statistics from the U.S.. The attention of investors will be primarily focused on the weekly data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products, and unemployment, as well as statistics on personal spending for October and the Michigan consumer confidence index for November. Statistics on stocks today does not bode well. These American Petroleum Institute yesterday showed crude oil stocks increased to 3.35 million barrels, and fuel - to 1.71 million barrels, while probable that the increase was mainly achieved by increasing imports. Number of primary applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced, but only slightly (from 505K to 500K). Personal expenses and the index of Michigan, according to economists' forecasts, should show growth, but it should not forget about the weak state of the labor market, which keeps the risk of unpleasant surprises. Technical analysis suggests a possible reduction of the main indexes in Europe and the United States today. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities expect the movement of KASE index on the positive territory with moderate dynamics. While the market should affect the expected upward trend of foreign markets. - Today, the dynamics of stock price of Kazakh banks will be determined by a news background in foreign markets, which so far promises to be favorable, at least, before the opening of trading in the U.S.. Supporting quotes may also have the approaching season records Kazakh banks, where you can see good results. - based on the data of API, analysts of BTA Securities believe that oil reserves under the version of DOE will show a slight increase this week, with the processing of oil will also increase, which is positive signal for the quotations of oil. However, the data also indicate a possible increase in gasoline stocks as evidence of the weakness of final demand, in which case the quotes will come under serious pressure. At the same time, a possible increase in consumption of gasoline indirectly indicates growth of consumer confidence in October. Overlooking today macro statistics U.S. income and expenditure of households in October, and data on unemployment are likely to have a positive impact on the oil quotations. Thus, analysts of BTA Securities expect moderate positive trend in oil prices on the basis of today trading. - Today, most of the day metal market will show moderate positive momentum. Base metals will support the strengthening of the euro against the U.S. dollar. The dynamics of the market at the end of the day will be under the influence of the publication of the U.S. macro data, which is expected to moderate positive. Quotes of Kazakhmys and ENRC today is likely to be closed in positive territory. - November 25, is expected to strengthen the dollar against the euro against the background of the expected negative dynamics of the U.S. stock market. Also projected strengthening of the pound against the backdrop of positive on the UK Index of Services. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.1 5.5 Sell -40 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 680.0 410.0 Sell -40 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 305.0 205.0 Sell -33 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.4 7.9 Hold -6 HALYK BANK KASE 310.0 295.0 Hold -5 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 147.0 Hold -13 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 188.0 191.0 Hold +2 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 830.0 735.0 Hold -11 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.5 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,950.0 n.a. On review n.a. BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.08 2.54 Buy +135 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,281.0 1,324.0 Hold +3 ENRC LSE 878.0 824.0 Hold -6 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.08 0.13 Buy +63 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.0 7.0 Hold -12 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.2 2.0 Sell -36 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,000.0 22,490.0 Buy +18 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.280 0.039 Sell -86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 62.5 120.9 Buy +93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-11-25]