Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 23, 2009

/IRBIS, November 23, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for November 23, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today, the stock market is likely will show a positive dynamic in morning trading day in Europe. Investor demand for stocks will increase because of its apparent decline in the previous week, as well as a significant weakening of the dollar on speculation that the Fed will maintain incentives and retain its key interest rate low for a long time. The reason for this was the statement by Head of the Federal State Bank of St. Louis that he is for a further extension of the program of redemption of mortgage bonds. In addition, projected the most influential economists, U.S. dollar continue to weaken because of the huge money supply, the low base rate and the Fed huge debt the United States. Prices for oil and metals at least until the opening of trading in the U.S. will grow. In the future, the mood in the markets will determine the data on U.S. sales of homes on the secondary market. Economists expect the indicator increasing by 2.3% in October, however, given recent trends in the real estate market of the country, likely to unpleasant surprises. So analysts of BTA Securities of the opinion that today the dynamics of the stock market will be restrained, with minor deviations up or down. Technical analysis suggests possible improvements in most of the major indexes in Europe and the United States today. - Today, the Kazakh market will show a restrained dynamics. Investors will continue to record gains on securities of the banking sector. Moderately positive external news background may support quotes syrevikov. Meanwhile, analysts of BTA Securities expect growth of quotations of Kazakhtelecom. - Today, quotes equity instruments of Kazakh banks may continue to decline against the backdrop of uncertain dynamics of foreign markets and an overbought sector as a whole. Interest of investors may be only a few tools, lagging in growth. For example, despite the general downturn in recent days with confidence increasing shares of the Bank of BCC, traded an unwarranted discount to the Kazakh counterparts. - After weeks of building the first time last month, today electronic trading on the dollar again weakened to the level of 1.4941 against the euro, which will support the quotations of oil today. Also, the growth of quotations of the shares of oil and domestic oil companies would contribute to positive data on the consumption of oil by China, published on Monday morning. According to the Beijing Consumers General Administration, oil refining in China rose to a historic high of 33.3 million tons in October. Net exports of gasoline fell to 344.9 tonnes - at least for the last three months due to growing up in domestic demand. Shares of natural gas companies, presumably, will continue to decline. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities expect to rectify the negative dynamics in the steel sector after a favorable picture for the base metals and gold, which today will show further growth in the weakening of dollar. Today shares of Kazakhmys and ENRC is also expected to show growth. - on November 23 is expected weakening of the dollar against the euro on speculation about the risks of its further decline against the euro. Also estimated the technical capacity to the pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.0 5.5 Sell -39 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 650.0 410.0 Sell -37 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 310.0 205.0 Sell -34 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.2 7.9 Hold -4 HALYK BANK KASE 305.0 295.0 Hold -3 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 147.0 Hold -13 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 188.0 191.0 Hold +2 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 780.0 735.0 Hold -6 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.1 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,899.0 n.a. On review n.a. BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.09 2.54 Buy +133 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,266.0 1,324.0 Hold +5 ENRC LSE 857.0 824.0 Hold -4 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.08 0.13 Buy +63 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.8 7.0 Hold -10 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.2 2.0 Sell -36 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,700.0 22,490.0 Buy +20 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.320 0.039 Sell -88 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 62.5 120.9 Buy +93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-11-23]