Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 19, 2009

/IRBIS, November 19, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for November 19, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - in the first half trading day in Europe analysts of BTA Securities expect moderately negative trends in the main indices in response to a correction in oil prices after a three-day increase in positive data on oil reserves in the U.S. and retail sales. Pressure on the quotes of black gold, will provide strengthening of USD on speculation that traders trimmed short positions at the rate of Americans after the euro / dollar failed to go above level 1.5. Further dynamics of the market and the dollar will depend on the macroeconomic news on the U.S. Today, there goes macro statistics for primary applications for unemployment benefits, an index of leading indicators, as well as an index of business activity in the state of Philadelphia, the most meaningful indicator to assess the future evolution of industrial production in the United States. For all the macro-indicators, except primary applications (projected a slight increase from 502K to 505K), is expected to improve performance. In the case of positive data on unemployment, there are good chances of appreciation of the euro and oil quotation marks above the psychological level 1.5 and $ 80 per barrel, respectively. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities expect slowing or stopping the rally in the Kazakh market, which started earlier in the week. Disappointing makro statistic in the U.S. and negative dynamics of oil prices will put pressure on quotes row owners. Overbought stocks Kazakh banks may be subject to sale to fix profits. Analysts of BTA Securities does not rule out lowering the stock price and the GDR Kazakhstan banks under pressure from the expected negative dynamics of foreign markets in the first half day of trading in Europe. Rally in the past two weeks, investors can also touch up on the idea of fixed income. - Today is expected to decrease in quotations of oil before the opening of U.S. trading session, after which the possible increase of U.S. data on unemployment, which is expected positive. - Today is expected to strengthen the dollar in morning trading in Europe, which would put pressure on quotes metals. Macro statistics from the United States may change the situation in the afternoon. The dynamics of stock price Kazakhmys and ENRC will moderate with a tendency to decrease, and possibly increase during the day. - on November 19 final dynamics of the dollar against the euro will be determined macro tatistics of U.S. unemployment and a leading indicator, which has a whole is expected to improve performance. Analysts of BTA Securities predict technical weakening British pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.6 5.5 Sell -42 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 680.0 410.0 Sell -40 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 300.0 205.0 Sell -32 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.7 7.9 Hold -9 HALYK BANK KASE 324.0 295.0 Hold -9 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 147.0 Hold -13 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 188.1 191.0 Hold +2 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 740.0 735.0 Hold -1 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.6 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,521.0 n.a. On review n.a. BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.08 2.54 Buy +135 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,327.0 1,324.0 Hold 0 ENRC LSE 901.0 824.0 Hold -9 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.09 0.13 Buy +44 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.2 7.0 Hold -14 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.4 2.0 Sell -40 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,100.0 22,490.0 Buy +18 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.320 0.039 Sell -88 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 66.0 120.9 Buy +83 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-11-19]