Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 18, 2009

/IRBIS, November 18, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for November 18, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today, analysts of BTA Securities does not rule out the resumption of growth of market shares after the API data showed lower oil reserves in the United States. Analysts of BTA Securities believe that the reduction of oil and fuel because of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to have occurred, and government data can testify to that today. Given that the market expects to increase reserves, it can give a positive effect. Oil prices in morning trading Expensive, but this growth is restrained, because Quotations are close to the mark at $ 80 a barrel, the overcoming of which is possible only when supported by strong fundamental factors. Growth is also expected today in the market of metals. Speculation that demand from major consumer of industrial metals, China, will continue, yesterday was taken up quotes the price of copper on the COMEX. The U.S. dollar today will weaken against the euro and British pound on growing optimism about the economic recovery that will support the positive trend in commodity prices. Today, investors can see positive statistics on the U.S. housing market. Economists expect modest increases in the number of new buildings started and permits for new housing. - Today, on the Kazakh market will be observed restrained dynamics associated with a probable decrease in stock price of Kazakhstan's banks. Shares of commodity companies can support the market against the anticipated positive trend in prices for oil and metals in Europe. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities does not exclude the negative dynamics of equity instruments quotations Kazakh banks in response to the possible fixing of profit on them after their impressive rally. - Analysts of BTA Securities expect significant growth in oil quotes in anticipation of data DOE, which is expected to be positive after the API before the data were significantly better than expected. The consensus of analysts calculated by agency Bloomberg, revised downwards, from today's data, they expect growth of oil reserves at 0.3 million barrels and a slight decline in gasoline stocks. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities expects the commodity sector will drive up the observed yesterday in the second half of the trading session on speculation that demand for metals from China will remain stable in the long term. This factor will increase the weakening U.S. dollar. Rising prices of contracts for aluminum will anticipate positive news from the U.S. real estate sector. Quotes of Kazakhmys and ENRC today, will most likely also in the Green Zone. - on Nov. 18, expected weakening of the dollar against the euro by possible rise in the stock market. Also projected technical weakening of pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.0 5.5 Sell -39 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 650.0 410.0 Sell -37 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 270.6 205.0 Sell -24 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.2 7.9 Hold -4 HALYK BANK KASE 300.0 295.0 Hold -2 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 147.0 Hold -13 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 188.0 191.0 Hold +2 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 700.0 735.0 Hold +5 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.8 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 22,390.0 n.a. On review n.a. BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.10 2.54 Buy +131 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,300.0 1,324.0 Hold +2 ENRC LSE 890.0 824.0 Hold -7 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.09 0.13 Buy +44 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.9 7.0 Hold -11 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.5 2.0 Sell -41 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,000.0 22,490.0 Buy +18 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.320 0.039 Sell -88 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 63.3 120.9 Buy +91 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-11-18]