Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 17, 2009

/IRBIS, November 17, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for November 17, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today, analysts of BTA Securities expect restrained dynamics of the global market shares even in the event of positive data on industrial production in the United States. On Tuesday, come into the fundamental factors of the oil market, where weekly data on reserves of oil and petroleum products are still talking about weak demand and instill uncertainty in the market. On this day, in addition to macro-statistics, forecasts will be available to the American Petroleum Institute (API) for stocks that are likely to talk about their growth in the last week. Currently available forecasts of individual analysts also speak in favor of increasing stocks. Yesterday, oil prices approached the psychological mark of $ 79 per barrel. Most likely, this is possible rollback of quotations, which may cause the weak dynamics of the market shares, which yesterday soared by almost 1.5%. The pressure on the market will also have a statement of the head FRS Ben Bernanke that the economic challenges still remain, due to decline in lending in the U.S. and the deteriorating situation on the labor market. In favor of reducing the negative and said the price of oil and gold in morning trading, as well as signals of the technical analysis of the dynamics of the basic indexes. - Analysts of BTA Securities believe that today in the Kazakh market will prevail purchase. Kazakhtelecom and commodity companies will be among the priorities. The banking sector looks overbought, but the expected growth of Kazkommertsbank and the People's Bank. On the eve of ADR quotes two of these banks soared to London. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities expect multidirectional dynamics quotations equity instruments of domestic banks. Ordinary shares of banks on KASE today to raise after a significant increase in quotations GDR CMC and NSBK in London. Depositary receipts, in turn, will be cheaper in the correction. - Today is expected downward correction in oil quotes in the run-up data on stocks and the U.S. demand for fuel, to be released on Tuesday and Wednesday. According to the poll by news agency Bloomberg, analysts expect the growth of oil reserves at 1.2 million barrels, petrol - on 0.8 million barrels. In the last three weeks, evidence of a weakening of demand for gasoline and reduce the load refineries. So, last week loading refineries amounted, on average, 79.9%, whereas in the past five years in November, she was close to 87.1%. If in early October, a 4-week demand for fuel exceeds last year's value by 5%, then last week's rate was 1% lower than a year ago. Moreover, according to yesterday's data from the Department of Commerce U.S., retail sales of petrol stations showed a slight increase in October and still 15% below last year's level. - After yesterday's rally in metal prices and shares of steel companies on Tuesday analysts BTA Securities expect that market dynamics will be in near-zero area, with the possibility of slight growth or decline. Technical analysis shows the probability of strengthening the dollar, that would put pressure on the quotation of precious and base metals. For quotations Kazakh issuers in the steel sector in BTA Securities and restrained and positive attitude. - November 17, expected to strengthen the dollar against the euro on the background correction of the stock market down. Also projected weakening of the pound against the backdrop of negative inflation in the UK. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 8.9 5.5 Sell -38 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 625.0 410.0 Sell -34 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 270.6 205.0 Sell -24 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.3 7.9 Hold -5 HALYK BANK KASE 300.0 295.0 Hold -2 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 147.0 Hold -13 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 188.0 191.0 Hold +2 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 704.0 735.0 Hold +4 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.9 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,500.0 n.a. On review n.a. BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.07 2.54 Buy +137 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,300.0 1,324.0 Hold +2 ENRC LSE 906.5 824.0 Hold -9 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.08 0.13 Buy +63 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.9 7.0 Hold -11 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.6 2.0 Sell -43 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,000.0 22,490.0 Buy +18 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.320 0.039 Sell -88 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 63.0 120.9 Buy +92 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-11-17]